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Lies I told about Lebanon
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: Olmert

"I can't go on like this. There is also a country here. I feel responsible for what happens here." This, according to Ben Caspit's report in the mass-circulation daily Maariv yesterday, is how Ehud Olmert explained on Wednesday to Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik his decision to resign as prime minister after his Kadima party holds its election for chairman.

What could, and should, have been said, publicly, on the morning of August 14, 2006, when the cease-fire in Lebanon came into effect, was said only two years later in the corridor behind the Knesset plenum hall, to Dalia Itzik. And on an "out of control day" in the Knesset, in which members of the coalition behaved irresponsibly and gave initial approval to a series of laws that overshoot the state budget.

Like statements uttered throughout his time in office, Olmert's prime-time resignation speech on Wednesday was a strange concoction of facts and lies, half-truths and deceptions. The leading narrative in some of the commentaries in the newspapers yesterday held that he was a good prime minister who was misunderstood; that only unfortunate mishaps (the Second Lebanon War) and ethical complications (the corruption affairs) had spoiled his otherwise impressive balance. Those who wrote this tend to forget that in Israel, with the multitude of threats that surround it, the supreme test of a prime minister is his ability to function in war and to negotiate peace agreements. In the first, Olmert failed miserably. In the second he has not yet shown results.
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The resignation speech referred to the war only indirectly. Olmert claimed that lessons had been learned and mistakes rectified, but the brief accounting that he gave of the war was partial and unfounded. If it is quiet in the north now, what exactly happened before? Why was it necessary to rehabilitate Israel's deterrent capability, which Olmert is convinced "has improved beyond recognition"? And when was the weakness of the Israel Defense Forces, which was in need of larger budgets and reconstruction, demonstrated?

Two years ago today, on August 1, 2006, he delivered an emotional speech at the graduation ceremony of the National Security College, to senior IDF, Mossad and Shin Bet security service people, after three weeks of Katyushas in the north: "It has to be said today that the State of Israel is succeeding in this battle and is making impressive and unparalleled, perhaps unprecedented, achievements. It is already possible to say that the face of the Middle East has changed in the wake of the great achievement of the State of Israel, of the Israeli army and the people of Israel ... This threat [the rockets] will never be the same again. They will never be able to threaten to fire missiles on this nation, because this nation is dealing with the rockets and vanquishing them."

Hiding the facts

One can only reiterate the conclusion of the officers who listened to this speech two years ago: He apparently did not experience the same war we did. When Olmert boasts of the rehabilitation of the IDF, he is pulling a veil over two facts: The army has not yet been put to a practical test since the war, and the person in charge of the army's work, Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, was not even Olmert's first choice for the job. It was then minister of defense Amir Peretz (now Labor MK) who insisted on appointing Ashkenazi as the successor to Dan Halutz.

Top IDF people had mixed feelings about Olmert. GOC Central Command Gadi Shamni, who served as his military secretary during the war (and tried, in vain, to prevent the foolish offensive at its end), is full of admiration and affection for him. However, it is not a good idea to mention Olmert's name out loud to Udi Adam, who was GOC Northern Command during the war. Adam has not yet forgotten how, at a meeting on August 7, Olmert explained to him that "to this day I haven't been shown any plan for occupying the territory south of the Litani. Every plan that the army has presented to me, I have approved." This was a half-truth, at best. Over a long period Olmert evaded discussion of the attack plans presented to him by the General Staff. The last time he had done so had been only two days earlier.

In his testimony before the Winograd Commission, Olmert took care not to attack the conduct of IDF officers during the war. But this, apparently, was more tactics than ideology. The prime minister angrily retorted to one of his associates, who toward the end of the war complained to him about Halutz: "What do you want? I'm not the one who appointed him."

Olmert may be paying the price because of the suspicions of corruption, but his sins during the war remain in the background: the hasty decision to go to war, the unquestioning reliance on the chief of staff's general and flawed plans, the insistence on carrying on the fight even after it could have been ended within a few days. But above all there remain the final 60 hours. The prime minister brandished his peculiar vindication by the Winograd Commission, which held that the decision to launch the final attack on the ground was within the framework of "reasonable consideration," and that the political rationale behind the decision had not been proved.

Here the members of the commission ignored some of the findings they themselves had gathered. They berated Israeli society for its unwillingness to make justified sacrifices at the beginning of the war, and found it hard to censure the prime minister for the unnecessary losses at its end. Perhaps here is where Olmert did learn some sort of lesson. It has been reflected in his prolonged avoidance of sending in ground forces to deal with the Qassams from Gaza, a position that is shared by Chief of Staff Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

The vague timetable that Olmert has set for his resignation leaves an opening for troubles. Can the country allow itself another half a year, if not more, of a government that is not capable of making significant decisions, with the prime minister loathing the foreign minister and the defense minister at least as much as they loathe him? It is to be hoped that Olmert, despite the toughness he displayed in the matter of the bombing of the Syrian nuclear reactor, will take a cautious approach when it comes to decisions concerning Iraq. This is, after all, a leader who in April of this year promised the citizens of Israel that "Iran will not have nuclear capability," and, on another occasion, released a surprising hint about nuclear capability that another country in the region has - and that of all things in an interview with the German media.

In his resignation speech, Olmert reiterated his diagnosis that Israel is closer than ever to peace agreements, with the Palestinians and with Syria, and that in the future we will yet be amazed by the long time it took to get there. To those who still believe in the vision of two states for two peoples, Olmert always looks as though his heart is in the right place. This wasn't a deception: He publicly supported the disengagement even before prime minister Ariel Sharon did. But it must be remembered that in the neighboring countries they are also following developments in Israel's political arena, and they believe that a prime minister whose level of support in the polls is in the single digits will find it hard to promote daring moves. This is also evident in Syrian President Bashar Assad's refusal thus far to move from indirect peace talks to direct ones.

At least with regard to Syria, Israel was closer to peace at the end of 1999, when the dispute revolved around several hundred meters on the eastern side of the Sea of Galilee. The negotiations with the Palestinians are being conducted on two issues: borders and refugees. Real progress has apparently been achieved on the issue of borders. However, on the most critical issue of all, Jerusalem, there have been no talks at all. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas has succeeded in forcing a cease-fire on Israel under conditions that are especially convenient for the former. The Palestinian terror organizations are operating in Gaza on the assumption that the IDF will not dare enter the Strip, and that even if it does, the price it will be forced to pay will cause it to retreat rapidly. The Israel of 2008 looks to Hamas like a weak entity that will soon pass from this world.

And the current quiet in the north is not only the result of Israeli deterrence (though this does play a part), but rather is also connected to the fact that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has obtained everything he wanted. Samir Kuntar is at home, as are the rest of the Lebanese prisoners; Hezbollah has stockpiled a record number of rockets, some of which it has deployed in southern Lebanon; and the Lebanese army does not dare confront him. Key appointments in the army are made only in consultation with Hezbollah, which enjoys the right of veto in the government.

The quiet in the north is also holding up in the meantime because of Iran's interest in maintaining a state of nonbelligerency at this time. But it is doubtful that the situation will remain like this in the event of an American or Israeli attack on Iran. It appears that when Olmert generously gave himself the credit for the quiet on the border, he should also have acknowledged the contributions of his foes to the north and the east, who helped him get where he is.
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