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His time was up By Yossi Verter Tags: Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni  Last Friday night Ehud and Aliza Olmert entertained some of their closest friends at the Prime Minister's Residence in Jerusalem. During this gathering, which apparently lasted long into the night, Olmert did some soul-searching with the people with whom he feels most comfortable. The next day one of them reported: "Ehud will take a dramatic step soon." Benjamin Netanyahu was convinced that Olmert was about to pull off a peace treaty with the Syrians. Senior members of Kadima were afraid he would resign on the spot and the party would be without an elected leader, without a replacement for Ariel Sharon's replacement. The writing was on the wall, some will even say from the time the Second Lebanon War ended. The criminal investigations, and in particular the Talansky and Olmertours affairs, only accelerated the prime minister's political demise. Advertisement For three months Olmert has been at the mercy of a cold, cynical political establishment that couldn't live with him and couldn't live without him. At least until he saved himself from further agony, at the end of the Knesset summer session and after a parliamentary day in which all the shaky ties that held the coalition together were torn apart. Last week, when he attacked the State Prosecutor's Office and the police as no prime minister has ever done, we wrote that he was not giving up. In hindsight, it is possible that that attack was actually his swan song. His speech Wednesday night was restrained, statesmanlike, dignified. It was his concession speech. With calm bitterness, Olmert listed his achievements. We can reasonably assume that in hundreds of thousands of homes, a snort of disdain was heard. But if we set aside the emotional baggage, we have to admit that he's leaving behind a country that is not in bad shape: There is reasonable security, a stable economy, low unemployment and international popularity, as evidenced by recent visits here by some of the world's most important leaders. Yet all of this is unimportant when the country is headed by a leader whose name has become synonymous with despicable public corruption. When some political science student researches Olmert's term in the future, he should focus on four speeches: the Knesset speech on July 17, 2006, about going to war; the "I am not popular" speech eight months later; the "I didn't put anything into my pocket" speech after this year's Independence Day, immediately after the gag order on the Talansky affair was removed; and the farewell speech two days ago. They tell the entire story. At Monday's meeting of the Kadima Knesset faction, Olmert mentioned the visit of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which he said took place "10 days ago." No, aides corrected him; it was only a week ago. Haim Ramon could not restrain himself: "Time flies when you're having fun," said the deputy prime minister to the prime minister. Olmert smiled sadly. He knew his time was up. So did Ramon. On Monday Ramon sat with Likud MKs Netanyahu, Gideon Sa'ar and Yisrael Katz in the Knesset, sharing his learned political assessments with them. Olmert will not run and there will be no alternate government after the primary in Kadima due to problems with the state budget, Ramon told the Likudniks. In the winter we'll go to an election, and you will probably come to power. No positive stamp In private talks, Ramon expresses his genuine regret that Olmert is not leaving behind a significant diplomatic legacy and thus a positive stamp on his tenure. According to Ramon, Olmert's missed opportunity was in the Palestinian track. When Ramon returned to the government after his "indecent kiss" trial, he urged Olmert to be daring, to chalk up an achievement. Olmert chose another path. He appointed Ramon's rival, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, to conduct negotiations with the Palestinians, and since then nothing has happened. Before the Annapolis conference, Ramon advised Olmert to announce that he intended to promote the "voluntary evacuation" law in the West Bank, and to enable tens of thousands of settlers to leave, in exchange for suitable compensation and no confrontations. Olmert rejected the suggestion, but appointed Ramon to examine the issue. Ramon conducted a comprehensive feasibility study and submitted his conclusions to Olmert about two months ago; now they will be passed on to the next prime minister. If it is Netanyahu, as Ramon believes, it will make its way to the bottom of the nearest trash can. Midweek, influenced by the Yedioth Ahronoth survey indicating a narrowing of the gap between her and her main rival, Shaul Mofaz, Tzipi Livni was interviewed on two radio stations. She said that if elected, she would restore direct election of the prime minister, in order to provide "stability." Neither Netanyahu nor Ehud Barak, chosen in direct elections, had stable governments. The moment the Knesset is in opposition to the prime minister, there is no stability. Livni is trying to present herself as Sharon's natural successor, with the help of his advisers, Eyal Arad and Reuven Adler. But, says one of Sharon's associates, "Arik did not consider Livni a successor, far from it. He didn't consider anyone a successor, he didn't think he had one." And another associate says: "If there were anyone around Sharon, whom he spoke about with great admiration or whom he considered prime minister material - it was actually Tzachi Hanegbi." "The attempt made this week to present a successor to Sharon, as though the safe at Sharon's farm had been opened and the executors pulled out a will that says 'Tzipi,' is pathetic," adds the first associate. "We should recall that when Arik formed his second government in 2003, he appointed Mofaz as defense minister, although he was not an MK, and Tzipi as absorption minister. He even gave Danny Naveh the health portfolio she wanted." Kadima is betting on Mofaz. This week Finance Minister Roni Bar-On was sitting in the Knesset cafeteria with an activist named Vanunu, a former Likud member. Bar-On introduced him as the head of a large group, as someone who knows everything about Kadima. Nu, who's going to win, the activist was asked. "Mofaz will tear her to pieces," he said dismissively. Mofaz, as opposed to Livni, will pull out all the stops to serve as prime minister in the present Knesset. This week he closeted himself for a long time with each Shas minister. One was heard briefing Mofaz about what he should say to Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. The main, and almost only, question that interests the political establishment is, will there be an alternative government after the Kadima primary, especially if Mofaz is elected? Mofaz has three governments on paper: a government in the present composition, with Labor, Shas and the Pensioners; a national unity government, with Likud; and a right-wing government, with the National Union-National Religious Party, Yisrael Beitenu and the ultra-Orthodox factions. Ostensibly, the government that would be easiest for him to form is the latter one. All he has to do is promise money for the Haredim and a freeze on diplomatic negotiations. Although Avigdor Lieberman is threatening not to sit in a government together with Shas, in exchange for the defense portfolio he will back down. The question is whether Mofaz will resist the temptation. Bar-On has already made it clear that if Mofaz asks him to give Shas child allowances, he will resign from the treasury. A national unity government is unthinkable. Also, as far as Barak is concerned, although he clearly has no reason to want an election, what will he get out of another term as defense minister, under Mofaz or Livni? He served in that post under Olmert after an unsuccessful war, and did not gain anything politically from it. Although all his associates - including ministers Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, Shalom Simhon and Isaac Herzog - believe that Labor will join an alternative government, whether headed by Mofaz or Livni, Barak sounded hesitant this week. "We will have to think very carefully," he said in a private conversation, "about whether to remain in an replacement government. It's contrary to all logic. We have to dismantle Kadima rather than breathe life into it." In Barakian Hebrew, "to think very carefully" means he has no idea what to do. Soon Bar-On, Ramon, Tzachi Hanegbi and Dalia Itzik will announce whom they are supporting in the race for Kadima leadership. Anyone who has heard them expressing their opinions of Livni is waiting impatiently to hear who will stand behind her, and why. The four are today among the Olmert faithful. He will certainly apply strong pressure on them not to go with Livni. They will do what's good for them. Ramon and Itzik, who came from the Labor Party, are closer in their opinions to Livni than to Mofaz, whose views cannot exactly be identified. If Mofaz is elected chairman of Kadima and Ramon leaves politics, Kadima will become "Likud B" plus Dalia Itzik. That is the dream of Barak and his friends - to bring about the election of Mofaz. Even Matan Vilnai, Barak's deputy in the Defense Ministry, who hates Mofaz with a passion after the latter bypassed him in the race for chief of staff, admits that for Labor, Mofaz is preferable. But, he adds: "Tzipi is preferable to him in every respect. She is certainly more decent than he. Mofaz does not have qualifications to be prime minister. All the professionals are well aware of that. He presents himself as Mr. Security, but people have forgotten that he was chief of staff and defense minister during the Israel Defense Forces' worst period, as was confirmed two years ago [by its performance] in the Lebanon War. We have to put an end to that whole story. What Barak and I are doing now in the Defense Ministry is repairing what Mofaz left behind him." Bookmark to del.icio.us   Party for a killer Arabic TV station hosts birthday party for convicted child killer Samir Kuntar. Hamas to blame Noam Shalit says his son Gilad is holding Gaza hostage, and not the other way around.

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