Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., August 07, 2008 Av 6, 5768 | | Israel Time: 21:19 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Three-way game By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's announcement that he will not continue to serve after the Kadima party holds its primary opens the way for a new game between Israel and its Arab partners - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and Syrian President Bashar Assad. In any case, both of them knew the past few months could not have brought about any real change. Abbas has already declared that he is not expecting an agreement to be signed by the end of 2008 and Assad is waiting for the results of the U.S. presidential elections. "It is not possible for me to suggest that 5 million refugees return to Israel because then they [the Israelis] will say that I want to destroy the state. But it also isn't possible for me to say that not a single one of them should return. Both those who return and those who do not need to be paid compensation, as do the countries that have hosted the refugees." This is what Abbas told the newspaper editors he met with in the wake of his talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak last Saturday. The comments indicate what is perhaps the most significant change in Abbas' opinion on the refugee issue and heavily hint at how he believes the refugee problem can be solved. These remarks also confirm Olmert's statement this week on the narrowing of the gap on the refugee question. Until now Abbas has been saying that "a just solution" must be found for the refugees, in the spirit of the 2002 Arab League resolution. In addition, he has also often reiterated the refugees' right to return to their homeland, all the while refraining from specifying what exactly constitutes "a just solution." Advertisement Olmert, who on Wednesday recounted the achievements he has chalked up during his term in office, will be able to add to those the fact that he succeeded in further advancing the talks with the Palestinians. Abbas' phrasing acknowledges the Israeli position that most refugees will not be able to return. Additional hints of progress can be found in the Palestinian president's remarks on borders. "They [the Israelis] are talking about exchanges of territories and inhabitants. I have informed them that we are in favor of trading land for land to the extent that it will not affect the contiguity of Palestinian territory. They are proposing that we trade 2 percent of the territory, but we disagree about that ... That is why I am hoping for successful negotiations between Israel and every Arab country on the basis of the 1967 borders, since that means I will also negotiate with them on those same borders. That is why I hope Syria will succeed, as did Jordan and Egypt." The American obstacle Abbas told the editors about a thus far unknown detail - that Assad had told him at March's Arab summit that Syria and Israel had made considerable progress in their bilateral negotiations and were already "on the matter of the maps." Since then, the negotiations have progressed even further, and this week, as the fourth round of talks was being held in Turkey, the possibility of the two sides holding direct talks between themselves was openly discussed. Turkish sources say that the Syrians are finding it difficult to understand how a proposed law on an Israeli referendum on withdrawing from the Golan Heights concords with the reality of negotiations. But the main obstacle remains American agreement to participate in these talks. Syria does not understand why the U.S. can be a partner to talks with Iran - the country that, according to both the U.S. and Israel, constitutes a global threat - but is not willing to send a representative to peace talks with Syria. Washington should be very attentive to this Syrian feeling, particularly in the context of the extraordinary statement by Hossein Shariatmadari, an advisor to Iranian leader Ali Khamenei and the editor of the newspaper Kayhan. About two weeks ago, Shariatmadari said, "Iran's relations with Syria will change considerably if Syria signs a peace agreement with Israel." Shariatmadari added that Iran is not pleased with the relations between Turkey and Israel. Syria is not alarmed by the threat. In fact, Assad and his aides have made clear that while Syria and Iran's interests relate to each other, they do not see eye to eye on everything. It seems as though Israel did not even have to propose the severing of relations between Syria and Iran as a condition for negotiations. It is quite possible that Tehran will do just that and it is even more likely that it will bite the bullet and continue to maintain relations with Syria, just as it has with Turkey, India and other countries that have good relations with Israel. Israel's negotiations with Syria do not necessarily influence its talks with the Palestinians, but Abbas understands that he has to navigate between Syria's ambition to play a role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and his obligation to the Egyptians. If he wants to enlist Arab support for a flexible solution to the issues of refugees and borders, he is more in need of Egyptian and Saudi support than Syrian aid. Bringing Syria into the fold In addition, of late, Abbas has been feeling that Egypt is preoccupied with trying to reconcile Fatah and Hamas, in order to quash the threat of the border crossing between Gaza and Egypt being broken through again, and for that reason is minimally involved with Israel. Abbas knows that without a domestic reconciliation with Hamas, no diplomatic solution with Israel will have a future. At the same time, he knows that without Syrian backing for the internal reconciliation talks, Egypt will suffer from carrying this burden alone. Abbas discussed this with Assad at the beginning of July and later during the Union for the Mediterranean conference in Paris. The upshot is that Assad is now pressing Hamas to make progress in the reconciliation talks; Mubarak, for his part, sees no impediment to bringing Syria into the talks, directly or indirectly. Assad and Abbas make a point of stressing that separate tracks exists, and that the Syrian and Palestinian tracks do not depend on each other. Still, without going into detail, Abbas has explained that "coordination and exchanges of information" do take place between the two Arab sides. Mubarak is still not speaking directly to Assad. A cold handshake in Paris was the only friendly gesture between them in the last two years, despite the expectation that a meeting between them would melt the ice a bit. There was even talk of Mubarak inviting Assad for dinner, but so far the idea remains on the back burner. In the meantime, the power struggles in Gaza (between Fatah and Hamas, and between Hamas and other local organizations); the pressure to open the Rafah border crossing; the negotiations for the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit; and the ceaseless ticking away of the cease-fire's provision that it be extended to the West Bank in four and a half months - all of these necessitate a quick tying together of the loose ends. "The Israelis think they can conduct separate negotiations over each thing," says a senior Fatah figure. "Shalit alone, the Rafah crossing point alone, a diplomatic agreement with Abbas and a truce with Hamas. But everything is linked. Hamas is exploiting Shalit as a political and diplomatic lever, and not just in order to free prisoners. Syria is exploiting Hamas for its own needs, in order to show Egypt that it isn't the only landlord in the region, and Abbas' friends are also making political and not just diplomatic calculations. All these issues contain a lot of explosive material, without a safety catch." Bookmark to del.icio.us   Party for a killer Arabic TV station hosts birthday party for convicted child killer Samir Kuntar. Hamas to blame Noam Shalit says his son Gilad is holding Gaza hostage, and not the other way around.

Read & React Israel to free more than 150 Palestinian prisoners as gesture to Abbas Responses: 99 Rights groups slam 'disgraceful' minor charge over shooting of bound Palestinian Responses: 121 Israel to Hezbollah: We won't tolerate arms smuggling Responses: 111 Al-Jazeera apologizes for 'unethical' coverage of Kuntar release Responses: 74 Rice on possible IDF Iran strike: U.S. has no veto over Israeli military operations Responses: 53 More Headlines 20:38 3 killed as small plane crashes at Haifa airport 18:33 Rice on possible IDF Iran strike: U.S. has no veto over Israeli military ops 20:49 Israel issues tenders for building of West Bank, East Jerusalem homes 15:35 European parliament chief: EU ready to broker Israel-Syria talks 20:59 British consulate: Settlers attack U.K. diplomats on Hebron tour 20:44 Hamas transforms former Gaza settlement into movie lot 14:14 Nazi hunter: Lithuania hunts ex-partisans, lets war criminals roam free 17:00 VIDEO / Al-Jazeera admits to 'unethical' behavior over Kuntar party 20:18 Rights group: Hamas won`t let us visit Palestinian prisoners in Gaza 18:50 Woman suspected of producing drugs at Rehovot home 14:58 Bar-On throws support behind Livni for Kadima party chair 15:14 IDF colonel and soldier charged in shooting of bound Palestinian 18:34 Legendary basketball coach Ralph Klein dies, aged 77 17:26 Two days before his first Olympics, Israeli swimmer learns of father's death Previous Editions Select Day 06 aug 05 aug 04 aug 03 aug 01 aug 31 jul 30 jul 29 jul 28 jul 27 jul 25 jul 24 jul

Special Offers Advertisement Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. Isaac Maimon at Dreamshoppe Special summer sale. Make an offer now. You will be surprised. MBA in Israel in English APPLY NOW! Limited spaces available Israel's Premier Real Estate Website www. israel-property.com Yossi Avrahami Presents: New Luxurious Projects in North Tel Aviv & Eilat Your vacation starts here Israel Travel Center Guaranteed Lowest Rates Hebrew Summer courses From $39.95 ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel

birthright Israel | Search engine marketing

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved