Subscribe to Print Edition | Sun., December 28, 2008 Tevet 1, 5769 | | Israel Time: 09:46 (EST+7)
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ANALYSIS / Will Turkey's religious row end in political turmoil?
By Zvi Bar'el

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Since the AK Party's landslide election victory in 2002, Turkey is back on track economically, foreign investors have returned, the middle class is growing and the Turkish currency is stable. Dismantling the government and disbanding parliament would immediately freeze this economic rehabilitation amid paralyzing uncertainty on the next government's economic measures.

Such a decision could also affect Turkish negotiations for acceptance into the European Union. EU representatives have already said that such a decision would gravely oppose the foundations of democracy, and, in any case, the EU is in no rush to grant entry to a Turkey ruled by an Islamist party.

The constitutional court is aware of all the serious implications its ruling could carry, but it is also familiar with the anti-religious mood of the Turkish public and especially the army, charged with upholding the constitution. So it faces a dilemma in maneuvering between pressures.

The court could vote to shut down the party by an insufficient majority - having its say without practical significance - it could punish the party by taking away state financial assistance, and it could punish individual members without doing away with the entire party. Will it opt for these alternatives or will it close the party altogether? All of Turkey is holding its breath, and with good reason.
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