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How our negotiator played Nasrallah By Emmanuel Sivan Tags: Nasrallh, Ofer Dekel  Virtually no heroes can be found in the affair of the abducted soldiers, except for the noble Regev and Goldwasser families. Surely a cack-handed cabinet that hastened to wage war without pausing to reflect, and a vociferous media with a penchant for exaggerations and sentimental melodrama, are not among these heroes. But maybe, in addition to the Regevs and the Goldwassers, we can add Ofer Dekel to the list, for his performance as the government's representative in the negotiations to return the two soldiers' bodies. He helped make the best out of a difficult situation, and at minimal cost. Dekel operated within a rigid framework, made up of a government that needed an achievement, and to put an end to this affair; a reckless and impatient media; and the genuine human drama of the missing soldiers' families'. Advertisement Through it, he managed to keep a clear head. He correctly assessed that the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, is not the all-powerful sorcerer he's made out to be, and that Hezbollah - yes, even the mighty and dreaded Hezbollah - had some constraints that could be exploited. One constraint stems from the organization's primary source of power - its status as the only armed militia inside Lebanon. Its raison d'etre, in all the agreements within Lebanon and in other Arab countries, was resisting Israel's presence in Lebanon. The Israeli withdrawal in May 2000 stripped it of its legitimacy. How can Hezbollah justify its existence as a militia now? The pressures to disarm Hezbollah increased with Syria's pullout from Lebanon in March 2005. Furthermore, its need to take action against Israel, to justify its military component, produced the July 2006 kidnapping. In staging this attack, as Nasrallah himself admitted in retrospect, Hezbollah did not take into account a massive Israeli reaction. This means that even the great Nasrallah makes mistakes, despite our commentators' insistence that he reads us like a book. The other constraint is that Iran was upset over Hezbollah's reckless move, as the abduction was construed in Tehran. Furthermore, Iran was displeased with Hezbollah's use of long-range missiles, which were meant exclusively for a large-scale showdown with Israel. This is why Iran has forbidden the organization to use the missiles until further notice. Obviously, the Iranians are not eager to see a second round of hostilities with Israel - certainly not while they are attempting to dampen the international and diplomatic pressure over their uranium enrichment program. Iran has an interest in presenting itself as a reasonable and responsible regional power. This all means that despite Hezbollah's rearmament drive, it does not possess a military option right now. The balance of terror in the north is tipping in the favor of the Israel Defense Forces, as Hezbollah has reason to fear a ferocious Israeli retaliation for its military activities, in the name of a rematch or revenge. Hezbollah's need to legitimize itself as an armed militia is becoming more pressing in light of how the March 14 Alliance, a coalition of anti-Syrian political parties and independents in Lebanon, is gaining support. Hezbollah, which the Christian-Sunni-Druze alliance considers an enemy of Lebanese sovereignty, can justify its existence with nothing more than the pitiful pretext of liberating the Shaba Farms, which Hezbollah's detractors have ridiculed and belittled. Another grave error by Nasrallah - May's forceful takeover of the Sunni quarter in Beirut - increased the need for legitimacy. The takeover clearly showed that the militia is battling not just the Zionists, but also coreligionists: Lebanese Sunnis. Following the murder of its leader Rafik Hariri, the Lebanese Sunni establishment has become a strong believer in a strong and independent Lebanon. The newly founded alliance between Christians and Druze has consolidated itself even further, while Sunni Muslim movements outside Lebanon, headed by Egypt's Muslim brotherhood, strongly rebuked Hezbollah for perpetrating this act - which Sunnis call an act of civil war. If Hezbollah is sensitive to any sort of media coverage, it is not the coverage by Al Jazeera, with its amorphous and sentimental viewership. Hezbollah cares about winning supporters from fanatical sister sects and Muslim organizations. This is especially true now that the Sunni-Shi'ite gulf is widening from its rupture point in Iraq. The conclusion is that Hezbollah is in grave need of an achievement that would help it legitimize its existence as a militia. Dekel apparently comprehended this, as well as Hezbollah's poor bargaining chips. After all, the Israeli team negotiated under the near-certain assumption that the two MIAs were dead. Dekel understood the weaknesses of an organization that many perceive to be omnipotent, and this is why he was able to run a truly praiseworthy negotiation process. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Internal fighting Human rights groups say torture is widespread in Palestinian lockups. Danger looms Pentagon chief Robert Gates warns: War with Iran would be 'disastrous.'   1.   Nasrallah`s major weakness 11:01  |  Big Al 20/07/08   2.   Emmanuel Sivan 11:36  |  Ralph 20/07/08   3.   Violates the first rule of spin 11:57  |  Natallie Durson 20/07/08   4.   2 DEAD ISRAELIS AGAINST KUNTAR + 4 TERRORISTS + 199 BODIES... 12:41  |  Gideon 20/07/08   5.   Basic Misconception 13:35  |  eva 20/07/08   6.   You have got to be kidding 13:51  |  Bill Pearlman 20/07/08   7.   Great Article !! 13:56  |  FreeOne 20/07/08   8.   Is the Leftist press still trying to sell this? 14:11  |  Binyamin Dissen 20/07/08   9.   How Nasrallah played Israel (and Emmanuel Sivan) 14:28  |  Natallie Durson 20/07/08   10.   #9 natalie 14:47  |  martin 20/07/08   11.   Does Lebanon want another War 14:53  |  Margaret Connell 20/07/08   12.   Does Lebanon want another war II? 15:00  |  Margaret Connell 20/07/08   13.   managed to free Kuntar and weak? 15:07  |  No name 20/07/08   14.   Lies, murders, betrayals, confusion 15:53  |  Jeffrey Howards 20/07/08   15.   Another tedious spinmeister for Israel 15:53  |  Clickfool 20/07/08   16.   # 11 Margaret Connell 16:22  |  Nick Ferriman 20/07/08   17.   Sivian`s contradictions 16:25  |  Nick Ferriman 20/07/08   18.   Spin 16:30  |  Nathaniel 20/07/08   19.   Hezbollah has annexed Lebanon to Syria 16:34  |  Herbert Kaine 20/07/08   20.   There`s no limit to your narcissism 16:48  |  Rowan Berkeley 20/07/08   21.   Discouraging 17:09  |  dave 20/07/08   22.   Every line of this article is so disconnected from reality that 17:19  |  Freethinker 20/07/08   23.   A fair exchange 17:47  |  Wolf 20/07/08   24.   freeing living prisoners for the dead Israeli heroes 18:09  |  dav zee 20/07/08   25.   to No Name 18:16  |  Jasmine Murphy 20/07/08   26.   #11 & 12 Margaret Connell 18:42  |  Chas. 20/07/08   27.   Chas 19:04  |  Margaret Connell 20/07/08   28.   Emmanuel Sivan 19:18  |  Charles 20/07/08   29.   Chas there is no `deliberate killing of unarmed civilians` 19:25  |  x-ray 20/07/08   30.   lebanese openion - objectively 19:32  |  moody 20/07/08   31.   Margaret is right 19:41  |  Avrum 20/07/08   32.   # 27 Margaret Connell 19:55  |  Nick Ferriman 20/07/08   33.   Nick 20:17  |  Margaret Connell 20/07/08   34.   Mr. Dekel used all his skills and Hisbollah 20:45  |  17 20/07/08   35.   Sivan`s So-Called Logic - This is How Israel Became Weak 21:21  |  Tod Zuckerman 20/07/08   36.   You`ll not make a success out of this disaster 22:52  |  Terry 20/07/08   37.   #15 CF 23:22  |  Moshe 20/07/08   38.   Margaret Connell Where there ia a will there is a wa 00:59  |  Labhras 21/07/08   39.   In the end, the world came to sympathize with Israel 01:06  |  Lee 21/07/08   40.   The worst stupidity is when one thinks oneself smart... 02:29  |  Fortuna Benmayor 21/07/08   41.   Well, this certainly is good for a laugh or three. 04:19  |  Johnboy 21/07/08   42.   Disproportionate response 05:21  |  Margaret Connell 21/07/08   43.   Israelis are brilliant 05:33  |  BamBoo 21/07/08   44.   # 31 Margaret Connell 05:50  |  Nick Ferriman 21/07/08   45.   he did a bad job!!! 09:22  |  ScotGuy 21/07/08   46.   BamBoo and Israel`s "brilliant" success # 43 09:28  |  Clickfool 21/07/08   47.   Nick Ferriman and Margaret Connell 09:37  |  FreeOne 21/07/08   48.   Wow, you said nothing and then declared victory 17:46  |  Person with brain 21/07/08   49.   "Crazy Israeli Strategy" 18:27  |  utagawa 21/07/08   50.   butchered nation with neighbors like this 01:20  |  kurfan man 22/07/08   51.   Hizballah`s raison d`etre 04:17  |  Zaid 29/07/08

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