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Last update - 14:57 16/07/2008 Prisoner swap ANALYSIS / In Lebanon, prisoner swap is Hezbollah victory By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: Hezbollah, Ehud Goldwasser  Hezbollah has been touting the prisoner exchange deal with Israel as confirmation that the Shi'ite militant group ultimately defeated Israel in the Second Lebanon War, but the swap is at least as much of a Hezbollah victory within Lebanon. Advertisement "The signatures of Olmert and Peres on the swap means official confirmation of the defeat and failure of the July aggression in the face of the will of the resistance," said Nabil Kaouk, Hezbollah's commander in southern Lebanon. But the swap may be even more significant within Lebanon. Since the end of the war, Hezbollah has been trying hard to prove that even if it was mistaken in its assessment of Israel's response to its abduction of Israeli soldiers, the war had a positive outcome. Despite UN Resolution 1701, which theoretically set strict limitations on military action, Hezbollah has strengthened itself militarily and politically since the war. It effectively annulled UN Resolution 1501, which laid the foundation for disarming it; it imposed its own conditions for the establishment of a new Lebanese government, attained veto power for important decisions, and is continuing its fight for an election law that would ensure it significant gains in next year's election. The prisoner swap tops off the list of achievements. "Despite differences of opinion within Lebanon, Hezbollah has managed to take advantage of every opportunity to strengthen its military and political capabilities," Kaouk also said. The prisoner deal is one of those opportunities, which comes somewhat belatedly, since Hezbollah reaped most of its achievements on the domestic front before signing the swap. But the prisoner exchange is no longer needed as leverage in the domestic dispute. Thus although the big celebrations tomorrow in the Lebanese town of Aabey and in southern Beirut, where the freed prisoners will be welcomed home, will augment the store of faith the public has in Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the celebrations are not enough to serve an immediate political aim.Nevertheless, it seems that Nasrallah is still not sure of his Israeli partner. Tuesday's report in the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar about the way the swap will take place, and particularly about the doubt regarding whether one of the Israeli captives was still alive, shows that Nasrallah is holding onto another card meant to keep Israel from backtracking at the last minute. Now what remains is to wait until Nasrallah gives a full report of the negotiations, including the tricks he played, and get the official Hezbollah version of the abduction. In his last speech, Nasrallah promised he would deliver more details, and it seems more unpleasant surprises await Israel. The kidnapping of soldiers is considered in Lebanon to be part of Hezbollah's private accounting vis-a-vis Israel, and the swap is just one more page in this accounts ledger. However, Hezbollah, which presents itself as a national resistance organization working for the interests of Lebanon, must still produce one more achievement: Israel's withdrawal from the Shaba Farms area. The Shaba Farms function as Hezbollah's justification for the claim that Israel did not fully withdraw from Lebanon, requiring Hezbollah to be armed so it can complete this mission too. Hezbollah is not opposed to negotiations aimed at giving Lebanon control over the Shaba Farms; it simply does not believe in the Lebanese government's ability to achieve anything through talks with Israel. The prisoner swap will serve Nasrallah as a banner to wave before the Lebanese government to prove the justness of Hezbollah's path. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Show me the money European Jews would do well to look to U.S. Jews for lessons on renewal. A tale of two mothers Israeli documentary 'To Die in Jerusalem' earns three Emmy nominations.   1.   Kuntar: Arab hero 07:02  |  Ilan 16/07/08   2.   Duh 08:06  |  JS 16/07/08   3.   Let them rejoice, I hope they sit quietly now for their own good 08:08  |  Dan 16/07/08   4.   With Israel and its PM Olmert , no Victory can ever occur 08:19  |  evangelica 16/07/08   5.   The SHAM PRIME MINISTER OLMERT. 08:42  |  Dolly 16/07/08   6.   US Politicians work for Iran 08:55  |  Israeli Arab 16/07/08   7.   This deal was available from the beginning 09:10  |  Natallie Durson 16/07/08   8.   Spare me 09:32  |  Jim 16/07/08   9.   Israel`s mad response to the capture of the IDF men 09:32  |  Clickfool 16/07/08   10.   Just throw that idiot Olmert out 10:02  |  Milo 16/07/08   11.   The dubious victory of Hezbollah 10:28  |  Rafi 16/07/08   12.   Where are the enlightened EU protests 10:31  |  Nuchem 16/07/08   13.   Nasrallah said he took 2 live prisoners 10:32  |  Nuchem 16/07/08   14.   Nasrallah said he took 2 live prisoners 10:32  |  Nuchem 16/07/08   15.   Jewish law forbids ransoming for more than one receives 10:34  |  Norb 16/07/08   16.   A victory that shows a huge difference between Hezb and Israel 10:38  |  Jo 16/07/08   17.   Olmert has known this from the beginning 10:52  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 16/07/08   18.   Red Cross 12:06  |  Serge 16/07/08   19.   A Good Deal for Israel. 12:21  |  US CITIZEN 16/07/08   20.   Hizbullah was defeated in this swap 12:34  |  Hassa 16/07/08   21.   #18 Serge--The Red Cross Did Not Kill Those Boys 12:43  |  US CITIZEN 16/07/08   22.   The Arabs have GOT YOU NOW OLMERT! 14:11  |  Dolly 16/07/08   23.   I hope the child-murderer`s welcome celebrations are 14:25  |  Freethinker 16/07/08   24.   judiaism cult of life, can`t accept death of soldiers 14:43  |  topanga 16/07/08   25.   #12 Nuchem 15:09  |  ray 16/07/08   26.   It is not Hezbollah victory, do the arithmetic 15:46  |  mehmet 16/07/08   27.   #19 US Citizen, you are kidding, right? 15:55  |  Johnboy 16/07/08   28.   Sure, it is a clear victory for hezbol and terrorism 16:06  |  Rafa 16/07/08   29.   QANA children 16:43  |  najoure 16/07/08   30.   lebanese clarification 17:33  |  Denise Thompson 16/07/08   31.   Natallie #7 18:04  |  Robert Haymond 16/07/08   32.   CHILD KILLERS- do the Maths 18:15  |  a human 16/07/08   33.   Pushing your children in the front lines 20:12  |  A mother 16/07/08   34.   Yes, Hizb are the REAL winners 20:29  |  Alex 16/07/08   35.   To a human 21:16  |  Jairo 16/07/08   36.   #19, US CITIZEN 21:18  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 16/07/08   37.   #27, john, Hez has not won anything 21:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 16/07/08   38.   Nr. 21: US Citizen 21:28  |  Serge 16/07/08   39.   Mehmet you are just a munipulator 21:48  |  CM 16/07/08   40.   #30 Denise 22:25  |  Joe 16/07/08   41.   at #32 22:43  |  David 16/07/08   42.   #40 Thanks for the lack of substance 23:35  |  D 16/07/08   43.   denise 01:28  |  Axel 17/07/08   44.   Mehmet - to end my reply..... 04:44  |  David Israel 17/07/08   45.   One more thing Mehmet with all due respect 04:50  |  David Israel 17/07/08   46.   I agree David Israel 14:38  |  mehmet 17/07/08   47.   Mehmet - in which mountain a wolf died? 15:31  |  David Israel 17/07/08   48.   ANALIZE THIS:EVERYDAY MERT IS IN OFFICE HE GETS AWAY WITH THEFT 03:35  |  glenna 18/07/08

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