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The end of the American century
By Ari Shavit
Tags: aspen, iraq, capitalism 

ASPEN, Colorado - It's hard to think of a happier place than Aspen. The tiny mountain city in western Colorado is not only a place of breathtaking beauty, it is a place of inconceivable abundance. The town of wooden houses that was built as a mining town in the late 19th century turned into a town of wealth and well-being in the late 20th century. The wealthy of New York and Chicago come to Aspen to ski in the snows of December and January, and the tycoons come to vacation in the lovely hills of July and August.

Aspen is the place where the new American capitalism celebrates itself with restraint and elegance. No more gritty robber-baron capitalism, but a refined capitalism of environmental awareness, art collecting and outdoor concerts.

And yet even in Aspen, the Fourth of July this year differed from any previous Fourth of July. Although there were barbecues on the lawns, fireworks in the evening against the snow that remains on the mountaintops, there was an unpleasant silence in the air. A silence of restrained anxiety. A silence of an empire that has lost its way, of a superpower that is no longer certain of its supremacy.
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Ostensibly the problem is Iraq. The Americans cannot forgive themselves or their president for the adventure on the Tigris in which he has embroiled them. But the truth is that in Iraq the situation is improving. General David Petraeus, the commander of the armed forces in Iraq, is succeeding in imposing a relative calm there, and the elected government of Nuri Maliki is gradually becoming stabilized. In 2007-2008 Washington repaired the serious mistakes it made in 2003-2004 by instituting a sophisticated policy that succeeded in winning over both Shi'ites and Sunnis.

The achievements of the new strategy are still brittle and reversible, but they are likely to enable the next American president to withdraw from Iraq cautiously, gradually and without disgrace.

So the real problem is not Iraq. The problem is America. The problem is that 80 percent of Americans believe that their country is on the wrong track, and 75 percent do not believe that the economic situation next summer will be better than it is now. The problem is that of General Motors. The company's value is now a fraction of Toyota's. The problem is that Chrysler is on the verge of bankruptcy, Starbucks is in trouble and the Dow Jones is in deep trouble. The problem is that the budget deficit is out of control, the national debt is irreparable and the dollar is worthless. Something about the way the Americans do things is not working. Something is not as it used to be.

Three Rottweilers are now at America's throat: very expensive energy, badly shrinking credit and a collapsing real estate market. Uncle Sam is bleeding because his dependence on energy is greater than that of other countries. His addiction to credit is more serious than that of other countries, and he is very exposed to the bursting real estate bubble. Cheap energy, cheap money and accelerated construction rescued America from the collapse of the Twin Towers and the high-tech crisis at the beginning of the decade. They enabled America to celebrate as though there were no tomorrow and no bill to pay.

But tomorrow is here. The bill is steep.

The bottom line is cruel and profound: The American century is over. The 40 years (1945-1985) when America was the exclusive leader of the free world are over. The 20 years (1986-2006) when American was in effect the sole superpower are over. The era of imperial America, which dictated the world agenda, is over.

The very fact that America exported itself is acting as a boomerang against it. The Americanization of the world is what is weakening it.

The residents of Aspen are worried this summer because they are not waking up to a reality of another cyclical economic recession. They are waking up to a challenge the likes of which they have not known since Franklin Roosevelt invented the New Deal for them. Will a new Roosevelt be found for them in November?

While the rain begins to fall on the green valley that descends to the river, shortly before the start of the Sunday afternoon Dvorak concert, the concerned liberals of Aspen are talking about Barack Obama. Not because Obama really is a new and proven Roosevelt. Far from it. But because Obama is a promise for change. Obama is 2008's desperate longing to repair America.
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  1.   re; Obama 02:48  |  John Hargis Sr 11/07/08
  2.   Ari Shavit is correct, but there is a fourth Rottweiler 09:33  |  Natallie Durson 11/07/08
  3.   Natallie Durson 10:23  |  Tulip 11/07/08
  4.   Yeah But... 10:28  |  Yosemite 11/07/08
  5.   The financial legacy of the Jackass Years 10:53  |  Clickfool 11/07/08
  6.   What A Downer Post! 10:59  |  Yosemite 11/07/08
  7.   Ari, you are correct mostly, but exagerate GREATLY! 11:02  |  S 11/07/08
  8.   The US has gotten the political system it deserves 11:05  |  Margaret Connell 11/07/08
  9.   MUSLIMS TURN TO RULE THE WORLD 11:10  |  indrajaya 11/07/08
  10.   #2American Gentiles are TaxWorkHorses For Jewish st, Trash 11:12  |  cooper 11/07/08
  11.   Too soon to write off America 11:14  |  YZK 11/07/08
  12.   ANOTHER "RAMBO" IS NEEDED TO SAVE AMERICA 11:29  |  indrajaya 11/07/08
  13.   Bush, Sharon, Blair and Rice are names that history will damn 11:30  |  Aounist 11/07/08
  14.   Will the dollar collapse? 11:44  |  Dror 11/07/08
  15.   Ari: your "the dollar is worthless" is an exageration. 11:51  |  S 11/07/08
  16.   Re Natallie #2 11:53  |  Esther 11/07/08
  17.   What Ari Shavit lacks is understanding of economy 11:57  |  Genuine Tosefta 11/07/08
  18.   toothless rottweilers 12:04  |  Gregor 11/07/08
  19.   ReJohn #1 12:07  |  Esther 11/07/08
  20.   I will pray for Indrajaya 12:35  |  Tulip 11/07/08
  21.   Cooper, can I be your horse whisperer? 12:36  |  Tulip 11/07/08
  22.   This is no longer routine 12:36  |  Dror 11/07/08
  23.   TO the U.S.A, lending you a helping hand 12:41  |  AY 11/07/08
  24.   Natallie Durson 12:48  |  Londoner 11/07/08
  25.   Good article! "The urge for hegemony &preponderance by some will 12:54  |  lakshmi 11/07/08
  26.   # 19, TULIP 12:58  |  indrajaya 11/07/08
  27.   Bad news for Israel 13:18  |  JJ burke 11/07/08
  28.   future of US$ 13:28  |  Walt 11/07/08
  29.   Another prayer for Indrajaya 13:28  |  Tulip 11/07/08
  30.   Nr 9 Indrajaya 13:29  |  Serge 11/07/08
  31.   Shavit Is Right 13:35  |  Martin 11/07/08
  32.   Well, we are a nation of whiners... 13:38  |  Aphemia 11/07/08
  33.   On Two Fronts 13:54  |  Ronnie Wolman 11/07/08
  34.   America will Recover 14:14  |  Jane 11/07/08
  35.   WE ONLY CONSUME WE PRODUCE NOTHING!!! 14:20  |  tpg 11/07/08
  36.   An overview 14:37  |  Clickfool 11/07/08
  37.   Deleted by moderator 14:46  |  Asian Observer 11/07/08
  38.   It`s all because of Bush`s wars. No war on Iran! 14:51  |  Michael 11/07/08
  39.   Majority of world population is not white and Western 14:51  |  Mark B. 11/07/08
  40.   Still the supreme superpower- but 14:53  |  Shalom Freedman 11/07/08
  41.   Hery, John Hargis, before you run for president... 14:55  |  newageblues 11/07/08
  42.   America has been in worse positions before 14:59  |  Realist 11/07/08
  43.   What Ari Shavit is not saying 15:00  |  Mark B. 11/07/08
  44.   Esther #18 about "the professional USA friend" 15:01  |  S 11/07/08
  45.   life in israel is better 15:01  |  sam 11/07/08
  46.   don`t generalize that the rest of the country is akin to the col- 15:18  |  pal amer 11/07/08
  47.   Dear Londoner #23 and esther # 16 15:32  |  North American 11/07/08
  48.   Yes, but... 15:37  |  ARTH 11/07/08
  49.   1929 was a global recession 15:38  |  Ilan 11/07/08
  50.   That Forth Rottweiler... 16:02  |  Gray 11/07/08
  51.   North American (#44), American in NY, American, shaming America! 16:03  |  S 11/07/08
  52.   JJ burke # 26 16:11  |  Rica 11/07/08
  53.   Re: Obama 16:13  |  Rica 11/07/08
  54.   Wrong 16:31  |  America 11/07/08
  55.   Dear S # 47 16:34  |  North American 11/07/08
  56.   never underestimate 16:50  |  Voice of Thunder 11/07/08
  57.   optimism 17:11  |  JJ Burke 11/07/08
  58.   The end of America 17:18  |  Lulu 11/07/08
  59.   Re S#41 17:42  |  Esther 11/07/08
  60.   RE: MUSLIMS TURN TO RULE THE WORLD 17:49  |  Daniel 11/07/08
  61.   Londoner 17:52  |  Natallie Durson 11/07/08
  62.   Deleted by moderator 17:57  |  yeah 11/07/08
  63.   Sic Gloria Transit Mundi 18:02  |  Mark Lincoln 11/07/08
  64.   #26 burke proves he is completely a burke 18:19  |  victor hardman 11/07/08
  65.   How so very true, and there is more 18:24  |  Michael N 11/07/08
  66.   this article lacks substance 19:03  |  confused 11/07/08
  67.   US has a monkey on it`s back, Israel 19:25  |  Tom Clark 11/07/08
  68.   True..... 19:50  |  William 11/07/08
  69.   Another dark ages without America 19:54  |  ed 11/07/08
  70.   The Thing Is... 20:05  |  Yosemite 11/07/08
  71.   #33 TPG `losing liberties` 20:15  |  ballistic