Subscribe to Print Edition | Sun., July 13, 2008 Tamuz 10, 5768 | | Israel Time: 01:52 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Peres Conference Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Two years later / Hezbollah recovers, but still fears Israel By Amos Harel Two years on, the balance of the Second Lebanon War remains negative for Israel, yet with time it seems to become even more complicated. Some issues that were heatedly argued over at the end of the war have become clear, however. Few would today deny that the neglect of military training in the years before the war was a grave mistake that exacted a heavy price. Advertisement Few would try to justify the decisions made by the senior army brass (although former chief of staff Dan Halutz and former division commander Gal Hirsch are still writing their versions). On the other hand, the issue of Israel's deterrence appears mixed. Deterrence is a key question because it will determine to a large degree if, and when, the next war will break out. Immediately after the war, there were speculations that exposing the weakness of the IDF, government and even Israeli society would necessarily lead to another attack on Israel. This has not happened so far, although Israel provided Syria at least with a perfect excuse to do so, by bombing the Syrian nuclear facility last September. Hezbollah has also refrained for the past two years from any provocation along the northern border. The quiet there was disrupted on two occasions by isolated Katyusha fire, in both cases by a radical Sunni faction. It appears that Israel did not pay enough attention to the impact of the huge damage it caused Lebanon's Shi'ite population - from the Dahia in Beirut to south Lebanon. The Israeli message that another round would lead to worse destruction is understood better in Beirut than in Jerusalem. Fear is one of the things restraining Hezbollah today. Since the end of the war, Hassan Nasrallah has to be careful not to show his face in public. Not only due to the Israeli hunt for him (which failed) during the war, but due to the murder of Imad Mughniyah in Damascus, which Hezbollah and the world attribute to Israel. The organization's senior military commander is gone and a successor of equal standing has not been found. Two months after the battles between Hezbollah and its rivals in Beirut, the internal picture in Lebanon remains unclear. Hezbollah has proved that it is an effective force capable of swift action, the Lebanese army remained quiet and Nasrallah's Sunni enemies folded. On the other hand, Hezbollah had more than 50 fatalities in battles with the Druze. He also has good reasons to assume that Tehran is not always thrilled with Nasrallah's belligerence. The worst result was the near total ending of the arrangements stipulated in Resolution 1701. Arms smuggling across the Syrian border has become a flood. Although the organization's presence along the border with Israel has disappeared, Hezbollah has rehabilitated its military infrastructure in south Lebanon and is now concentrating it in the Shi'ite villages. UNIFIL's frequent searches are bothering Hezbollah, but anyone who things the organization can be driven out of south Lebanon is mistaken. The question is how Hezbollah would act after completing the POW exchange deal, probably next week. The IDF tends to believe it would continue to act with restraint. On the other hand, after the celebrations expected with the return of Samir Kuntar, Nasrallah may look for a "small" confrontation. Watch out for his speech during the Kuntar celebrations. If he mentions Air Force flights over Lebanon, we will know what he is planning. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Smoking kills Tehran slams McCain for saying cigarettes could be used to kill Iranians. Case of deja vu Olmert and his office chief Shula Zaken were accused of similar charges back in 1991.

Read & React Did Iran doctor an image of its missile test launch? Responses: 208 Hitler's bodyguard: The Fuhrer was a good boss Responses: 160 Olmert suspected of defrauding state, charities to fund trips abroad Responses: 76 Ari Shavit: The real problem is America Responses: 164 H.A. Hellyer: Who speaks for Europe's Muslims? Responses: 68 More Headlines 00:51 Olmert: Reports I defrauded charities are distorted, despicable 22:48 Hezbollah hands report on Ron Arad over to Israel 01:44 Sarkozy asks Syria to help resolve Iran nuclear crisis 20:10 Friends of captive IDF soldiers mark two years since Hezbollah raid 21:57 Tehran slams McCain for saying cigarettes could be used to kill Iranians 17:29 Report: Berlin man who tore off head of Hitler waxwork to escape fine 20:47 ANALYSIS / Two years on, IDF is starting to look like an army that can fight a war 20:46 Dichter: Recent terror attacks in Jerusalem are not start of new intifada 17:12 Senior Tehran official: Iran would destroy Israel if attacked 07:17 Former U.S. diplomat gets year in prison for anti-Arab remarks 14:00 Hezbollah: Second Lebanon War was biggest Israeli defeat ever 14:26 Qassam hits western Negev in new Gaza truce violation Previous Editions Select Day 11 jul 10 jul 09 jul 08 jul 07 jul 06 jul 04 jul 03 jul 02 jul 01 jul 30 jun 29 jun

Special Offers Advertisement Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. Israel's Premier Real Estate Website www. israel-property.com Dan Hotels Israel Live the Legend & experience an Unforgettable Summer Vacation Yossi Avrahami Presents: New Luxurious Projects in North Tel Aviv & Eilat Holyland Park Jerusalem Apartment Tower World Class Luxury Right In the heart of Tel-Aviv The Meier on Rothschild tower Your vacation starts here Israel Travel Center Guaranteed Lowest Rates Hebrew Summer courses From $39.95 ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel

birthright Israel | Search engine marketing

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved