Will next U.S. Congress top current record number of Jewish lawmakers?

It is a silly question, I know that. Only fellow obsessive-Jew-counters will understand the temptation to try and predict whether the 2008 Congress will break the record number of Jewish legislators that was established in the 2006 election cycle.

But here we are, doing exactly that.

Whether it is good or bad for the American Jewish community to have so many Jewish legislators serving in Congress can be a matter of debate (See First thought on most Jewish Congress ever: Wow. Second thought: Oy). Most people will say: it doesn't matter. Some will even say: counting is a bad habit.

For all those uncomfortable with it I'll say: Go and read something else. But for the few, the brave, the neurotic I'll say: Join this short ride. You might enjoy it.

Background

That's simple. The class of 2006 gave us a record number of Jewish legislators on Capitol Hill. The numbers: 30 Jewish members of the House (29 Democrats), 13 Jewish senators (9 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats and 2 Republicans). This is the highest number ever.

But what will happen in 2008?

House

The Cook Political Report lists what it considers to be a competitive districts. Here is what this report predicts:

1. No Jewish legislators are in the Democratic Toss-Up column, meaning no Jewish Democratic legislator is likely to lose his/her seat. However, for the Toss Ups we also checked the list of challengers as to see whether there's a good chance for a new Jewish legislator to join the pack. The answer is no. The leading challengers aren't Jewish.

2. In the Lean Democratic column (namely, "competitive races but one party has an advantage"), three Jewish legislators:

Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08).
John Yarmuth (KY-03).
Steve Kagen (WI-08).

The challengers in all three races are not Jewish.

3. In the Likely Democratic column ("not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged"), one Jewish legislator:

Paul Hodes (NH-02).

His challenger was not yet determined but as far as I can tell, none of the likely candidates are Jewish.

4. The passing of Congressman Tom Lantos earlier this year will subtract one prominent member from the Jewish column. The two contenders for his district (CA-12) are not Jewish (the Democratic incumbent, Jackie Speier, had a Jewish grandfather).

5. The Republican Toss Up column has no Jewish members of the House, but again, we also checked the list of challengers. Here is the outcome:

A. Alaska-AL: a leading Democratic contender, Ethan Berkowitz, is Jewish. He is leading among Democrats and lugging not far behind the main Republican challenger. Imagine: a Jewish legislator from Alaska! (Apparently, not the first one).

B. AZ-01: Howard Shanker is a Jewish attorney and is trying to become the Democratic nominee. One should note, though, that the list of prospective nominees is long and that the district is conservative. Shanker seems like a long shot.

C. NJ-03: In this open seat, Democratic nominee, John Adler is Jewish. It was a Republican district in 2006, but now it seems as if Adler has an edge.

Bottom line: Up to three new Jewish members (but if all of them win this will be a surprise, some of them have to overcome a primary battle first).

6. In the Lean Republican and Likely Republican columns: No Jewish members in danger of losing seats.

7. There are also a couple of long shots I've decided to include in this roundup. These are races that are not counted by anyone as Toss Ups, but if this year becomes a Democratic tsunami (as more and more people believe it might be), maybe some of them will change hands anyway. This, of course, will make this year much more likely to be a record year (more Jewish legislators and contenders are Democrats - oh, and voters too). Here are three such races:

A. NJ-05: Some think this one is not really a long shot. Rabbi Dennis Shulman has a compelling personal story , and a district that is conservative, but not as much as its representative, Scott Garrett, who's seeking his fourth term. Shulman was endorsed this week by the Jewish dovish lobby J Street.

B. WY-AL: Normally, no sane person would argue that a Democrat can win in Wyoming. But here's how the Almanac of American Politics sais about the 2006 race: "The House race in Wyoming, which was George W. Bush's number one state in 2000 and number two state in 2004, proved to be one of the closest in the country. Cubin won by only 1,012 votes, 48.3%-47.7%. A Saturday-before-the-election appearance by Dick Cheney may have saved her seat".

Gary Trauner, the Jewish contender who lost by a thousand votes is running again. Can he make it this time? This can be a tricky task in a state in which Dick Cheney might be still in a position to save Republican races.

C. VA-10: Judy Feder will try to unseat the popular Frank Wolf who's seeking his 15th term. Her chances seem slim, but Feder ran a good race last time, and she might be counting on Obama's intention to make a special effort in Northern Virginia as a way of trying to win this state.

Senate

The Senate is easier. Again, I'm using the Cook Report as a basic source of information about the state of the races.

Here is what we got:

1. No Jewish Democratic Senator is in danger of losing his seat (according to Cook). One Jewish Republican Senator is in the Toss Up column.

2. The fierce battle for Minnesota is the one Toss Up, but it will not affect the number of Jewish legislators as both Senator Coleman and his challenger, comedian Al Franken, are Jewish. It might affect, though, the composition of the Jewish caucus, by possibly taking away yet another Jewish Republican seat.

3. In Cook's report, Senator Frank Lautenberg, seeking a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, is safe. But some pools show that he is in a virtual tie with Republican challenger Dick Zimmer. The latest Rasmussen Report found that "Forty-five percent (45%) of likely voters in the predominantly Democratic state favor Lautenberg, while 44% are backing Zimmer, a former U.S. congressman who is running as a fiscal conservative".

Zimmer is also Jewish, so no "Jewish seat" will be lost here.

4. Again, we checked all the Toss Ups for Jewish contenders. As far as I can tell, there's no one who fits this description.

5. And here is a nugget I can add thanks to a reader in NM: Congressman Tom Udall of New Mexico, son of Former Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall and a nephew of former Congressman Mo Udall from Arizona, is not Jewish, but is a long time member of Temple Beth Shalom in Santa Fe, New Mexico. He is married to Jill Cooper, a Jewish woman. And he is running now for the open Senate Seat in New Mexico. We didn't count him as a member of the Jewish group in 2006, so we will not count him as one if he becomes a Senator. But maybe an honorary membership is due.

Again, numbers

In the House, no gains or losses are expected when discussing Democratic seats, other than the one of Lantos earlier in the year - but if some of the races get tighter we might see a couple of loses (up to four). A couple of gains are possible when we check the Republican seats - but for this to happen the Jewish contenders need to win the primary battles, and the elections. Since there's no reason to believe that the number of Jewish Senators will change, this is really a close call: The 2008 Congress can repeat the record number of Jewish legislators; it can lose one or two Jewish seats; but a new record is also possible.