Obama and the Jews: is 61% enough?

1.

Barak Obama and his people should be happy about the headline attached to the new Gallup analysis: Obama Beats McCain Among Jewish Voters. But truly, that is a misleading headline. Even in his wildest dreams no McCain activist was hoping that his candidate will beat Obama fair and square among Jewish voters. American Jews are liberal Democrats. A Democratic nominee cannot conceivably lose most of the Jewish votes. In their dreams, the McCain people hope that their candidate will be able to pull out the almost 40% Ronald Reagan got from Jews back in 1980.

"Barack Obama is faring better than might be expected among Jewish voters" the poll says.

"Expected" by whom?

According to the new Gallup data he will only get 61% of the vote, and McCain will get 32%. That is 13% less for Obama than the percentage of Jewish Americans voting for John Kerry back it 2004, and 7% more for McCain than the number of Jewish Americans voting for Bush back in 2004. That can be, well, the difference between winning and losing Florida.

2.

"Jewish Democrats continue to favor Clinton, but by only a slim margin over Obama -- 50% to 43% in April, compared with 51% to 41% in March", the Gallup poll says. That is nice for Obama, as we observed back when the first poll was released. But not as nice as one might think: apparently, Jews who prefer Clinton are more prone to defect to the McCain camp if Obama becomes the nominee. That is why Obama is only leading McCain 61-32, and Clinton is leading McCain 66-27.

In other words: against Clinton, McCain will only be able to attract 2% more than Bush in 2004. That is quite remarkable considering the fact that McCain was never a nuisance to Jewish liberals to the extent Bush was and still is.

3.

"Obama's Jewish support is holding up" says the poll. That is true, and might seem somewhat surprising in light of recent events. Apparently, Jewish voters who supported Obama were not impressed by the Jeremiah Wright affair, and kept their loyalties intact. We do not know, though, if this affair was not the one driving Clinton supporters away from Obama and toward McCain, because the survey six weeks ago did not compare between the two Democrats and McCain.

4.

The Republican Jewish Coalition was quick to respond to this poll, saying that "The recent polling numbers demonstrate Obama's weakness among Jewish voters".

My hands are clean when it comes to Obama's popularity among Jews. I argued in the past against such claims, and wrote that "most of those believing that Obama has a real problem with the Jewish vote are those who want him to have such a problem".

Well, whether one likes it or not, there is a beginning of a proof now. Ironically, it comes from a poll that is markedly positive in tone in regard to Obama.

5.

After Clinton won the Jewish vote in Pennsylvania by a fairly large margin, I wrote that "Jews did not just vote for Clinton more than the average Pennsylvanian did; they voted for her in even greater relative margin of difference when one considers the community from which they come".

With the newly released poll, again, we should also look at comparisons and not just at the fresh data. And such comparison raises some questions.

For example: The Gallup pollsters explain that "Jewish Democrats continue to favor Clinton, but by only a slim margin over Obama -- 50% to 43% in April, compared with 51% to 41% in March". But this is not exactly consistent with the reported numbers they have published in March. Back then, they claimed that it was much closer: 48% to Clinton, 43% to Obama ? and that is why when we reported this survey we headlined our article "Jewish Democrats: Half pro-Clinton, half pro-Obama".

Strangely, Gallup does not explain the difference in numbers, and to some suspicious minds this might seem almost like a deliberate attempt by the good people of Gallup to report only the good news when it comes to Obama.

Today on Rosner's Domain:

What To Read:
Obama has no "Jewish problem"

Previous blog:
There's no moral virtue in talking to one's enemies