The U.S. and Mughniyah / Not just 'who' but also 'where'

WASHINGTON - It was not excitement at the assassination of Imad Mughniyah that caused U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to slip and break his shoulder Tuesday, but the treacherous ice that covered Washington sidewalks and stairs. But State Department spokesman Sean McCormack gave vent to the Americans' joy at Mughniyah's demise when he said "the world is a better place without this man in it."

Better - but not necessarily safer. Analysts at Western intelligence agencies were busy Wednesday drafting preliminary papers outlining response scenarios. Some had difficulty performing the task in the absence of relevant information: Until they know who was responsible, they cannot tell who will be the target of revenge.

Among lower-ranking officials, there was an understanding that the problem is not necessarily a lack of information, but rather the degree of compartmentalization.

Like Israel, the Americans claimed ignorance as to who took out Mughniyah, and like Israel, they were suspected of lying. Perhaps Gates knows, as do the heads of the major intelligence agencies, but did not bother to tell his subordinates - including some of those responsible for assessing the potential repercussions - the whole truth. He can discuss it privately with Defense Minister Ehud Barak when the latter visits next month.

Fingers were pointed in three possible directions Wednesday. If Israel did it - the widespread assumption - it would join the mysterious bombing of a Syrian facility last September in contributing substantially to improving Israel's security standing in Washington. Israel's image was greatly tarnished in the failed Second Lebanon War, and the effort to rebuild its deterrence includes gaining American as well as Arab attention.

If America did it, it would come as a great surprise to most experts in Washington. They refused Wednesday to assume America had a hand in the matter, damning evidence of the low regard in which the CIA is held.

The third version has Syria as a potential suspect, perhaps as a means of signaling to the Americans that it wishes to resume talks and sever ties, at least partially, with the terror groups that have made Damascus home.

Syria condemned the killing, but anyone looking for signs of Damascus' involvement could find them. For example: Syria's intelligence services are notorious for using car bombs for assassinations.

In any event, the fact that Mughniyah was killed on Syrian soil will go on the growing list of American charges against it.

If the Syrians didn't know they were hosting one of America's greatest enemies, then Assad's rule is so weak that terror groups can establish a base there, compelling the U.S. to take preventive steps. If they knew, then they're in even bigger trouble.


Related articles: