Will Florida Jews follow Joe Lieberman and vote GOP?

The political battles that will be waged on Saturday in the Republican primaries in Nevada and South Carolina will not end in a decisive victory for any candidate.

No matter the result, the losers will not drop out, and the victors will not deal a death blow to them. There is clearly a great deal of momentum at stake, as well as the potential to scoop up important delegates for the summer's conventions.

These are relatively small states, and the number of delegates up for grabs is quite low. Nonetheless, for one candidate, Saturday's primaries could spell life or death for his campaign. If Tennessee's Fred Thompson does not win in neighboring South Carolina, he can pack his bags and head home, for his race will be all but over.

Since 1980, every Republican candidate who has won the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the party's nomination for president. This year however, things are different. A number of candidates are coming to the primary still on their feet, still with some wind in their sails. This is the first time that the state could choose a candidate who did not win in New Hampshire or Iowa, meaning it may not be the decisive blow that it has been in the past. The polls so far don't agree that a dark horse could win in the Palmetto state, but so far, the polls have been far from perfect.

They predict a Huckabee victory or one for McCain (25% to 23% respectively), but in national polls McCain is still seen as the candidate most likely to be able to defeat a Hillary Clinton or a Barack Obama.

This was exactly the message that Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman gave in a speech to the "Republican Jewish Coalition" in Boca Raton, Florida. For some time now, Lieberman has stood by McCain's side, or more accurately, has run to lend support when needed at McCain's beckon call. When McCain lost earlier in the week in Michigan and gave his concession speech, Lieberman was there and someone made this joke: Huckabee has mighty Chuck Norris, but McCain has mighty Joe.

Over the next week and a half, Lieberman will address a number of heavily Jewish crowds in Florida in support of the McCain campaign. Will the support of the senior Jewish senator from Connecticut encourage Florida Jews to buck the trend and vote for McCain.

Before the heavily-Jewish crowds, Lieberman emphasized McCain's pro-Israel voting record and his knowledge of the Iranian threat. Lieberman didn't level harsh criticism on the democratic candidates, after all, he is for the most part still a democrat. Nonetheless, Lieberman doesn't seem convinced that the democratic candidates fully understand the Iranian threat.

It's hard to assess how much Lieberman will influence the race in Florida. The Gore-Lieberman ticket lost the Sunshine state in the 2000 presidential elections, albeit by as little as 500 votes depending on who is doing the counting. And it was not Lieberman's fault: after all, the popular governor of Florida at the time was the other candidates' brother. If Gore and Lieberman came close - maibe he does have some influence over the Jewish community of this state.

Lieberman's ex-friends in the Democratic party, the ones he abandoned after they abandoned him in the 2006 race for the Connecticut Senate seat, have turned their gaze towards Nevada.

At Barack Obama's campaign headquarters, a palpable tension has been felt for the weekend's primary. The fact that that the two largest workers' unions in the state have endorsed his candidacy has turned the Illinois senator into the man to beat in Nevada, in spite of polls that had him trailing Hillary in the state for a very long time.

Grand expectations do not typically serve the candidates well in the primaries. It's easier to hope for victory when the expectations are low, or to lose quietly, as was expected before the polls began to sing your praises. This is why Obama's supporters have been quick to point out that the candidate is not the frontrunner, he's not the one who is ensured a victory. If he wins they say, all the better, if not, then there was no failure - Nevada was never slated to be an easy victory for Obama.

When the democrats head to the polls in South Carolina, it will be more difficult for the Obama campaign to make such argument.

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