Iranian boats threaten, so the candidates up the rhetoric

It was the statement that won the debate for Fred Thompson: "One more step and they would have been introduced to those virgins that they're looking forward to seeing." The "they" were the Iranian soldiers in the boats charging toward the U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz last week.

The Republican candidate is pinning his hopes on winning his party's primary in South Carolina, which borders his home state of Tennessee. If he doesn't win there next Saturday, there's no point in going on. But meanwhile, in Thursday's Republican debate, Thompson gave the sign and the other candidates fell in, going after the target: Iran. Mike Huckabee, the big winner in Iowa, who is also hoping to do well in South Carolina, warned anyone goading the U.S. Navy to "be prepared that the next thing you see will be the gates of Hell."

The Democrats cannot compete with the Republicans when it comes to aggressive rhetoric about Iran, even if they wanted to. "I think an incident like this reminds us that we shouldn't be lulled into some false sense of confidence about Iran," former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani said in the debate. "Iran," said Mitt Romney, who is losing ground in this week's Republican primary states, Michigan and South Carolina, "is a very troubled nation."

A poll by Fox News, which sponsored the debate, gave John McCain the edge in South Carolina, with 25 percent of the vote, with Huckabee (18 percent) and Romney (17 percent) at his heels. In Michigan, where voters go to the polls Tuesday, the tide has turned. In the middle of last week Huckabee led (23 percent), followed by Romney (22 percent) and McCain (18 percent). But a few days later, after McCain's New Hampshire win, polls showed him taking the lead with 29 percent, followed by Romney (20 percent) and Huckabee (18 percent).

As usual, the talk on Iran eventually turned to Israel. The isolationist candidate Ron Paul warned against confronting Iran, later saying the U.S. should keep its hands off the Middle East, including mediating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - exactly as President George W. Bush was doing just that. Paul is the only candidate who seeks to withdraw all U.S. aid to Israel and the Palestinians.

"We've got one true ally in the Middle East. That's Israel," Huckabee said in response to Paul. "It's a tiny nation - for us to give the world the impression that we would stand by if they were under attack and say it's not our problem, that would be recklessly irresponsible."

South Carolina is a very conservative state with a large number of evangelist Christians. That is why Huckabee could do well there. Since 1980, when it became the earliest southern primary state, no Republican has won his party's nomination without winning there. McCain lost to Bush there in 2000, but he has the goods for the state: South Carolina has several military bases, making the discussion on the seriousness of the naval incident with Iran an appropriate subject. And as a former naval officer, McCain has the appropriate street cred. He made it clear that the incident was very serious indeed.

Bush is touring the Gulf states this week, where the Iran issue will take pride of place. Bush warned the Iranians after the incident, which McCain believed was the right thing to do. The incident was explosive, genuinely dangerous, and unfortunately not understood. Why did the Iranians choose to charge their boats so wildly? The Pentagon analysts scratched their heads and had a hard time coming up with an answer.

Walter Russell Mead from the Council on Foreign Relations, one of the most original and respected researchers on U.S. foreign policy, recalled in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal that "threats to American ships and maritime commerce have been the way most U.S. wars start." He cited a few examples from the 19th century, from Thomas Jefferson's naval expedition against the Barbary pirates in 1801 to the War of 1812 and the Spanish-American War during the term of William McKinley, set off by the (apparently erroneous) belief that the Spanish had destroyed the USS Maine. If Iran wants a war with the U.S., Mead summed up, last week's incident "is the right way to get one."

For now, the war with Iran will have to wait until the one developing between McCain and Huckabee ends. Their approach to the subject of Iran, as well as that of the other candidates, is not necessarily the same, despite the harsh words used by all. Giuliani's senior adviser said a few months ago that he believed his candidate would use military force if there was no other option. Huckabee, in contrast, called for a dialogue with Iran in an article he published in Foreign Affairs two weeks ago. He said a nuclear Iran could be "contained" - a significant statement, even if he has promised that Iran would not become a nuclear state on his watch.