Trailing in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton feels the heat

SALEM, NEW HAMPSHIRE- Over exaggeration among politicians is an inseparable part of election campaigns, and on Sunday afternoon, Clinton was caught in a moment of weakness. "We can never ever give up on helping to bring peace," Clinton said. She was not referring to the Israelis or Palestinians and her husband's peace initiative at Camp David, but rather the peace in Northern Ireland, a more successful venture of Bill Clinton's administration, which his wife has taken credit for.

The United States needs to go back "and to be a peacemaker," she said as she described her meetings on the Irish conflict. This was her way of convincing voters in New Hampshire that she has more experience needed to be president than Obama.

Looking ahead to Tuesday's presidential primary in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton's situation looks appears to be severe. A new Gallup poll has Barak Obama with a 13 percent lead. Among Democrats, Obama is leading Clinton 39 percent to 31 percent, and among independent voters he gets 46 percent of the votes to Clinton's 23. While men undoubtedly prefer Obama - 49 percent to 20 percent - he is also leading among women - Clinton's clear target group - 36 percent to 34 percent. In the Rasmussen poll, Obama has even a bigger lead - 39 percent to 23 percent. Her standings, morning of the primaries, are damaging.

Clinton's advisers have begun to remind the public that Bill Clinton also lost the 1992 Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary and still won the nomination. While this is true, the circumstances were different. In Bill Clinton's case, the candidate who won in Iowa didn't win in New Hampshire. In Iowa, Tom Harkin won but there was no real race there because Harkin was an Iowa senator and it was clear that he would win. In New Hampshire, Paul Tsongas, a senator of neighboring Massachusetts, won. As such, despite the fact the Clinton did not win in either state, the race was still wide open and after a few more losses, Clinton finally came out on top.

If Obama wins on Tuesday, it is an entirely different story. No candidate has ever lost the nomination after winning the first two states since the current primary system was established 35 years ago. Therefore, if the polls are right, Obama will become the leading candidate Tuesday. Following her loss in Iowa, Clinton complained about the voting system there and lauded New Hampshire's system. If she loses there to, she will have to think of other justifications for her defeat in the state her staff has called a "firewall" if Iowa is lost.

"If I had had eight more days," Mo Udall complained when he almost beat Jimmy Carter in New Hampshire in 1976. But for Clinton, each extra day only complicates the situation.

Three hours after her appearance in Nashua, a large crowd gathered in Salem and waited to hear Obama. Tardiness is part of any election campaign but this time, Obama outdid himself as he made voters wait for two hours. A quick calculation shows that in the past week, I have waited over 15 hours for different candidates to show up. An hour and a half for McCain, and hour and 15 minutes for Edwards, an hour for Clinton, two hours for Obama, another hour for McCain, another hour and a half for Edwards, etc., etc.

It is clear from Obama's speech that he knows the battle is far from over. Clinton still leads in the national polls which may come into play on Super Tuesday on February 5th. And yet, as the race goes on it is becoming evident that the hope for "change" - a buzzword that everyone is using - is most identified with Obama.

On Sunday, Clinton tried to turn things around on this front. If "you" say you will vote against the Patriot Act and in the end you vote for it, "that's not change," Clinton said as she went on to give more examples. Obama promised and didn't deliver - "that's not change". Obama said something and didn't do it - "that's not change". Obama "voted for Dick Cheney's energy bill" she said, and this time, the crowd yelled back, "that's not change."

Among those yelling was Joshua Miller, a young Jew from Boston, who volunteers to for the Clinton campaign, said that "she probably has my vote" when the primaries come to Massachusetts. "Probably," but not for sure. He sees himself as an "independent" and he does not rule out the possibility that he will vote Republican.

In any event, when votes are placed Tuesday, Miller will already be on a plane. The destination: Ben Gurion Airport. He's traveling for 10 days touring the country with a group of professors and students from his school, Bowdoin College in Maine. The only Jew in the group, bringing useful background: he's the only one who has visited Israel. Last year, Miller spent an entire semester at Tel Aviv University.

John McCain is a favorable candidate for Miller. He understands the challenge of the fundamental Islam better, Miller believes. According to Tuesday morning polls, McCain seems as though he might win in New Hampshire- a critical, if not fatal blow to the candidate who up until a few weeks ago was the leading candidate- Mitt Romney from Massachusetts.

But here's a fact that can ruin the polls' forecast: On Sunday evening, Romney delivered an excellent performance in a debate on the FOX news channel between the Republican candidates. The question is, of course, how many voters watched and how many will change their decision after? Clinton, who is the most centrist Democratic candidate, seems to him a reasonable choice, although the truth is that he only came to support her because a friend asked him to.