The green line is turning red

The usual shortened version of my weekend column with Aluf Benn is here. You can read the full article (1800 words) here, or these couple of paragraphs (700 words):

Olmert

At Annapolis, Olmert, Abbas and Bush promised to make "every effort" to complete the Israeli-Palestinian agreement by December 2008. In the meantime a month has gone by and the agreement is not a single millimeter closer. The Palestinians pulled a number on the Israelis and threatened to suspend the talks after the publication of the tender for the building of 307 apartments at Har Homa, which is within the municipal boundaries of Jerusalem, but outside the Green Line (the pre-1967 border). They knew that the world would support them and Olmert has had to respond by committing to increased supervision of construction beyond the Green Line. He has instructed his cabinet ministers to forward to him for approval any construction plan and tender in the West Bank and has ordered Housing and Construction Minister Ze'ev Boim, a friend since his youth, not to spring any new projects in East Jerusalem on him.

Before the last election, nearly two years ago, Olmert promised that his government would bring investments in the territories to a halt. His letter on Monday to the cabinet ministers looks like a fulfillment of this promise. Instead of coming out with political declarations, his aides explain, he is achieving the same goal by administrative order.

Abbas

There is no doubt that Olmert supports removing Jewish West Bank settlements ithat are outside the security fence - that was the basis of his "convergence plan" - but now it looks as though he has caved in to Palestinian and American pressure. He tried to reach an understanding with Abbas about construction in the settlements even before "the Har Homa crisis." We will continue to build in the large blocs, he told the Palestinian president, but we will not expropriate land or establish new settlements. In many places, explained Olmert, lands have fallen into the hands of private contractors, and if they have permits, they can start building tomorrow. Thus machinery and construction will be visible, especially within the blocs. I can't stop everything, Olmert said.

The Palestinians heard him, but when a chance to embarrass Israel fell into their hands they took it. As far as they - and the Americans - are concerned, there is no validity to the Israeli distinction between "neighborhoods in Jerusalem" and "Jewish settlements" in the territories." Har Homa is beyond the Green line, just as Itamar and Eli are.

Last Thursday, Olmert met with Abbas and said something like this: Israel has agreed to start talks even though you have not implemented the security measures in the road map. Now you are bogging everything down because of the settlements. We, too, can stop the negotiations because of the Qassams, and so on. We agreed to talk unconditionally, and that also applies to you. Abbas agreed. No doubt he figured that the Palestinians had obtained the most they could.

Bush

There is no doubt that Iran will be the main issue on Bush's mind during his trip to this region, in the wake of the American National Intelligence Estimate concluding that Iran does not have a military nuclear program. Bush will want to reassure the rulers in the Gulf, who have taken the NIE hard, to show them that they have American backing and support, and he can be expected to discuss large arms deals with Saudi Arabia. In Israel they will ask Bush to hold a joint Israeli-American discussion of the significance of the intelligence estimate. The American document states that until 2003, Iran was working on the development of nuclear weapons. Were the engineers and scientists in that project fired, or did they move on to a different, more secret program?

Beyond the intelligence issue, say senior sources in Jerusalem, the main significance of the American report is political. Olmert will talk to Bush about the loss of momentum in the diplomatic effort to isolate Iran and to impose sanctions on it, as well as about how to revive that effort in spite of the U.S. intelligence assessment. After all, the sanctions were imposed because Iran was enriching uranium - which is still going on - and not because of Iran's military nuclear program.