Special What to Read Des Moines edition: If McCain goes up, down goes Giuliani

1.3.2008
Special What to Read Des Moines edition:
If McCain goes up, down goes Giuliani
Clinton, Edwards & Obama Play To Different Strengths In Iowa: "The top candidates are fighting on this ground largely because they (as well as second-tier competitors Sens. Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson) have converged on most issues, a significant development itself in a party often torn with ideological strife. But the leading candidates are also focusing so heavily on these questions because, in fact, they offer clearly contrasting styles and strategies of leadership rooted in their divergent personal experiences".

Nevertheless, our new Israel Factor analysis finds the panel unanimous: The panel feels that it doesn't yet know enough about Huckabee, and it also feels that it is familiar enough with Clinton. They are also certain that Clinton is the better Democratic candidate for Israel.

Last week I wrote that Success of Iraq surge boosts McCain's presidential campaign, and explained that "John McCain, the candidate most identified with Bush's stance on Iraq, once looked as if this issue would bury his campaign. But the success of the surge is helping his poll numbers, and now, he is trying to return Iraq to the forefront of voters' minds".

If you need proof that I was right, take a look at this new Pew poll: "Giuliani's support has slipped 13 points since September. Huckabee has gained 13 points over that period, and McCain ? who many analysts all but wrote off over the summer ? has rebuilt his base nationwide from a low of 16% in September to 22% today".

Look at the numbers and then read this article: McCain and Giuliani: There Can Be Only One.

Here is more:

"Giuliani?s candidacy was made possible by McCain?s weaknesses, and when the McCain campaign seemed to implode in the middle of 2006 (running out of money, firing a campaign manager and longtime aides), he seemed poised to benefit strongly from it ? as voters jumped off the McCain bandwagon, it would only make sense for them to jump on Giuliani?s. And they did. But it turned out Giuliani hit his rough patch in late November and early December, with unfavorable news stories reminding people of his complex marital history and the poor behavior of some of his allies. And so it is McCain who, as New Hampshire approaches, is benefiting from Giuliani?s weakness.

McCain?s shot at becoming the Republican nominee seems dependent on Giuliani fading very fast. And Giuliani?s shot seems dependent on McCain?s surge in New Hampshire proving to be a single-state phenomenon".

American leadership still needed

Though I wasn't in Washington, I could not miss this important article in the Washington Post:

For the next several years, world politics will be reshaped by a strong yearning for American leadership. This trend will be as unexpected as it is inevitable: unexpected given the powerful anti-American sentiments around the globe and inevitable given the vacuums that only the United States can fill.

This renewed international appetite for U.S. leadership will not merely result from the election of a new president, though having a new occupant in the White House will certainly help. Almost a decade of U.S. disengagement and distraction has allowed international and regional problems to swell. Often, the only nation that has the will and means to act effectively is the United States.