From 79% to 69%: American Jews are losing interest in Israel

A couple of quick comments on the new AJC annual survey of American Jewish opinion.

As I wrote yesterday no survey is complete without comparisons. So what I will do here is to draw some comparisons between the 2006 survey and the one that was released yesterday.

1.

First, note the change in language in the very first question. Last year, it was the "war against terrorism", this year it is the "campaign against terrorism". A small change that did not affect the poll's outcome, but does reflect the sensitivity behind its wording. Apparently, calling this a "war" is making an unacceptable statement. And besides, Jews still do not approve of the way the Bush administration is handling this "campaign".

2.

U.S. Jews were opposed the war in Iraq from the start, were against it last year, and are against it today ? surge or no surge. Although a third of the Jews recognize that the surge had a positive affect, the rest are hard to convince. Last year, 66% said that Iraq will "never become a stable democracy". This year 76% still think that the war is going badly.

3.

Almost 60% of American Jews are very concerned about Iran?s nuclear program ? only 7% are not at all concerned. This number should be considered problematic, as the survey was conducted before the calming NIE on Iran was published. However, concerned or not, the number of Jews supporting military action against Iran decreased this year ? dropping from 38% to 35%, and the number of opponents grew from 54% to 57%. This year's survey didn?t check the support for an Israeli strike. Last year, 57% supported the option.

As I wrote some weeks ago polling the possibility of attack on Iran is a very tricky business: "Recent polls seem to reflect a rightward shift where Iran is concerned, but the figures are a little confusing: In addition to the surveys showing majority support (Zogby), or near-majority support (Gallup), for a military attack, others say an enormous majority is opposed (CNN). It all depends on how the question is formulated: Aerial strikes versus ground assault, now versus later, whether the words 'nuclear' or 'diplomacy' appear in the question."

This is the way the question was framed in the AJC poll: Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons?

4.

The Annapolis conference did not change the opinions of U.S. Jews regarding the prospect of peace. This year, 55% do not peace is possible, as opposed to 56% last year. Should Israel be willing to compromise on the status of Jerusalem? Most American Jews agree with my guest for this week: 58% no, 36% yes. These numbers represent an increase in the number of opponents compared to 2006. The vast majority still believe that "The goal of the Arabs is not the return of occupied territories but rather the destruction of Israel".

5.

The war in Iraq is not the most pressing problem facing the U.S. according to this survey. 23% mention economy and jobs before health care (19%) and the war (16%). This is markedly different from the priorities of the general population. In the latest CBS News/New York Times Poll 25% mentioned Iraq first, and "economy and jobs" got only 12%.

6.

The numbers dealing with political preferences for 2008 are quite clear: If it were up to the Jews, Hillary Clinton would be the next president. Giuliani is leading among the Republican candidates, but his negatives are very high (38%) compared to the Democratic candidates.

7.

Some minor differences in the Jewish identity section raise questions:

The number of Jewish Conservatives decreased from 33% to 29%. Does this represent a real change, or just a fluke? In 2005 the number of conservatives was 32%. In 2004 it was 31%. In 2001 it was 29%. There is no definite trend that can be identified here.

And the same question can be asked about the number of synagogue members. The number decreased ? from 53% last year to 50% this year. And in this case, the 2005 survey is consistent with a clear trend the emerged last three years: from 57% in 2005, to 53% in 2006 to 50% this year. However, the numbers from previous year - 51% membership in 2004, 50% in 2003, 51% in 2002 ? complicated the picture. Will next year see the numbers dip bellow 50%?

8.

74% of Jewish Americans agreed last year that "caring about Israel is a very important part of my being a Jew". In 2005 it was 79%. This year it is just 69%. A devastating news except for the fact that it is not really new.