All these smartest men (and Condi too)

At the end of this very busy week, I have two longer articles in the weekend edition. One is the column I wrote with Aluf Benn, the other an interview with Toni Blair with the other four members of the Haaretz delegation to the Annapolis conference. You can read the column (2,600 words) here and the interview (2,900 words) here.

Or you can just take a look at these couple of highlights (1,000 words):

1.

The genocide in Darfur is more horrifying, global warming is a greater cause for concern, and the danger that nuclear Pakistan will fall into the hands of Al-Qaida is leading to more sleepless nights. And still, only the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can bring 50 leaders and foreign ministers from all over the world to a small American coastal town on a clear late-autumn day, in yet another effort to achieve "a final status agreement within a year."

2.

Everyone assumes that this is a case of black or white: Either Bush is really backing his secretary of state's initiative, or he is only pretending to do so. But there is also a middle ground possibility. There is Bush the "idealist" and Bush the "realist," as one of his acquaintances put it - sometimes one prevails, sometimes the other. Most of the time, they simply coexist. Sometimes Bush believes that he will succeed in bringing the Palestinians water and make them drink, too. At other moments he views the Middle East with cruel sobriety and assumes that he will leave the Palestinian problem to the next president. "Anyone who shows contempt for Bush is not a serious person," says Olmert in defense of his friend. "He is a sharp and intelligent man. The delegations sat with him ahead of the conference, and he gave an excellent 20-minute briefing. He was familiar with all the details and nuances."

3.

The participation of Prince Saud in the conference reflects the Saudis' leadership in the Arab world, the inter-Arab legitimization of Abu Mazen (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas), and the chance for the normalization of relations with Israel. In Israel there were considerable fears that the Arabs would use the event to level harsh criticism, with the usual claims about the occupation, the checkpoints and the fence. To the surprise of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the speeches - even that of Amr Moussa and the Saudi foreign minister - were much calmer, and made do with a general call for an end to the occupation, something that also featured in Bush's speech. None of the speakers mentioned UN General Assembly Resolution 194, which the Arabs interpret as recognition of their right of return.

4.

Tom Lantos is one of the five U.S. congressmen who made their way to Olmert's floor in the Mandarin Oriental Hotel on Monday. An hour before their arrival, Olmert bragged to the Israeli correspondents about the fact that he had watched the Beitar Jerusalem soccer game the day before. Sunday was a day of sparse meetings, and Olmert managed to watch another sports event too - the Patriots-Eagles football (won by an undefeated New England, 31-28). His expertise in Americans sports impressed the congressmen. Olmert is no politician who pretends to be a sports fan; he is a fan who sometimes takes a break from sports to engage in politics. Maybe that is why, as he mentioned several times this week, he is so "relaxed."

5.

"Ehud Barak," Olmert said this week, "sat in on a meeting with the president, and was amazed at the importance the president attributes to this relationship." They speak for hours on the secure phone, the prime minister said. When he was prime minister, Barak himself spent many hours on the phone with Clinton; they also enjoyed a warm relationship. Of course it helped that Barak saved Clinton from Netanyahu. In any case, he certainly knows how to appreciate Olmert's achievement in his relations with Bush. But he can also tell Olmert a tale or two about how such relations do not always save a prime minister in the local political arena.

6.

Olmert's most brilliant political move, which saved him his job after the Second Lebanon War, was bringing Avigdor Lieberman into the government as minister of strategic affairs. Yisrael Beiteinu's inclusion in the coalition crushed the opposition on the right, made it easier for Shas to join the government, and has become Olmert's flak jacket against the external pressures for overly swift progress on the Palestinian track. The threats issued by Lieberman and Shas to resign from the government are what prevented a mention of the "core issues" in the joint declaration at Annapolis. Although Lieberman has of late been demonstrating discomfort with participating in the government, Olmert believes he will stay on even after negotiations on the core issues begin. "Lieberman," says Olmert, "is the smartest person in the government." This although Olmert himself, as well as Ehud Barak, usually consider himself to be the smartest person in any room he is in.

7.

If Israel or the U.S. bombs one of Iran's nuclear facilities, the Annapolis conference may be credited as the event that made possible important progress on the way to this decision. "I spoke to the president with unparalleled sharpness about these matters," says Olmert, "and my comments were extremely well-received - regarding the freedom we are reserving for ourselves, and what we will and won't do." Barak met separately with Cheney, with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and with Rice too. These discussions, which had already begun during Barak's visit about a month ago, did not deal with the Palestinians, according to a senior Israeli official, but "the broader regional picture, the threats and the responses." And what did they talk about? "About planning an infrastructure for the other - or the upcoming - challenges on the agenda; an infrastructure of understandings."

8.

Tony Blair no longer believes that "land for peace," in and of itself, is sufficient. He made this point emphatically in a speech he delivered a few weeks ago at the Saban Forum in Jerusalem. What is no less important, in his view, is the character of the Palestinian state. He wants to see a state with stable institutions that are properly run, particularly from the security point of view. He constantly reiterates that in talks with senior PA officials, and baldly warns them: "There won't be a Palestinian state unless it is coherently governed and run, and anyone who tells you different is misleading you."