Rice's devotion, Barak's skepticism, Olmert's coalition

Time for my print edition weekend column (with Aluf Bann in Jerusalem) - the shortened version. Read the full article (2214 words) here, or a couple of paragraphs (783 words) here:

1.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak came to the American capital with the label "doubter" concerning the negotiations with the Palestinians already pinned firmly to his lapel. Barak assumes that the Palestinians are taking into account two scenarios from which they could benefit: a conference that fulfills their expectations, or a failure, for which Israel is blamed. High-ranking Israeli sources tried cautiously to probe this week just how far U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice intends to go at Annapolis. Will the president let her, for example, put on the table a bridging proposal of her own that will compel Israel to accept a dubious deal, or, alternately, to enter into open conflict with the administration?

Yesterday, Barak had a meeting with National Security Advisor Steve Hadley )President Bush joined the meeting), who will come to the region next week accompanied by his deputy for Middle Eastern affairs, Elliott Abrams. The White House is considered more skeptical than Rice and her people about the chances of an agreement, and Barak almost certainly tried to fan Hadley's skepticism. However, the reality that appears to be emerging is that Hadley and Abrams are not coming to spoil Rice's party.

2.

Secretary Rice devoted her visit to the Middle East this week to aggressive marketing of her initiative. Her message was that it is very much worth Israel's while to achieve an agreement with the Palestinians while Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and PA Prime Minister Salam Fayad are still on the scene, and while the friendly Bush administration is still in power. She understands Israel's security concerns, but statesmanship is sometimes about making a choice between the bad and the awful, and if the current opportunity is missed, Israel will find itself facing the forces of radical Islam - and also a less friendly administration in America.

3.

America's largest Orthodox Jewish organization, the Orthodox Union (OU), sent a worried letter to Prime Minister Olmert. Its members, skullcap-wearers and mostly people of the right, are not enchanted with Olmert's willingness to put Jerusalem on the negotiating table. The prime minister was courteous enough to reply - with a denial. There are no negotiations on Jerusalem, he promised in his response. President Shimon Peres also made similar statements midweek during a visit to Safed. "There is no such thing as dividing Jerusalem," he said. "The only thing that the State of Israel needs is to ensure a Jewish majority in Jerusalem."

For anyone who is wondering about these political acrobatics, senior people in Jerusalem have offered a circuitous solution: There are no negotiations because the Palestinians can get only what we agree to give.

4.

Shas chairman Eli Yishai, the minister of industry, trade and labor, proposes confining the talks to economic measures, and has warned Rice about the unraveling of the coalition should the core issues, and above all Jerusalem, come up for consideration. Rice maintained a calm, unexcited expression in face of threats of a political apocalypse. Nor did she take umbrage at Infrastructures Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, who said the last time Israel listened to her advice, Hamas came to power. She came prepared to Israel, determined to convene the Annapolis conference, apparently in December. Nevertheless, it appears that she erred in attributing too much weight to optimistic reports about the one-on-one talks between Olmert and Abbas, and did not correctly assess the extent to which their hands are tied by domestic political considerations. The moment the talks emerged from behind closed doors, the expected crisis came.

5.

Rice promised the worried Israelis that the Annapolis declaration will contain three provisions that are important to Israel. First of all, it will cite Bush's letter of April 14, 2004, to Sharon, which recognized the existence of "Israeli population centers" in the territories, and stated that the refugees would be able to return, but not to Israel. Rice took pride in having formulated that letter in her previous capacity as national security advisor, and noted that it was a valuable achievement for Israel. Second, the Annapolis declaration will cite the road map, which makes all progress toward a Palestinian state contingent on the curbing of terror. And third, it will reiterate Bush's statement at the Aqaba summit in 2003, to the effect that Israel is a "Jewish state".

Today on Rosner's Domain:

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75% of Americans do not believe in the peace process

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Egypt: IDF soldiers are aiding arms smuggling to Gaza Strip

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There can be no stasis in the unstable Middle East