11 daring predictions for the new year

You might not want to read this blog, and if you do, you might not want to believe it. Last week I explained why you should never trust my predictions ever again (if you ever did). I surely can't say that my Daring predictions from last year were all accurate.

Nevertheless, I?m going to try again, giving you all yet another opportunity to mock, disagree, debate, react, dismiss, laugh - or just ignore. And I wish you all a good, safe, and happy year.


Shanah Tova.


Syria: Escalation

As I wrote the other day, "the less the U.S. desires a confrontation [with Syria], the more frustrated it becomes. Now, once again, it seems that it is approaching a crossroads of decision: After all, the frustration of an American president in the face of arrogance is nothing compared to that of a president being faced by a regime that embodies a concrete danger". Since then, some details of the reasons for which Israeli jets were flying over Syria were made public (not by Israeli media): Israel recently photographed possible nuclear installations in Syria. Can you imagine such development leading to any positive outcome? It doesn't have to be a full fledged war, but the tensions related to Syria will not calm down soon.


Iran: No decision

That's not a bold prediction, but rather the easy way out, for me, but much more so to the decision makers. In our Rosh Hashanah eve column (with Aluf Benn. You can read it here) we discuss Iran at length, concluding that this will be the crucial year for decision. But indecision is also a form of decision.

Iraq: Staying the course

Blaming Israel for the decision to stay the course in Iraq will probably not fly (blaming it for the decision to initiate the war didn't fly with reasonable people either). America will stay because there are still people who believe it can win, but mostly because the other alternatives seem to be far worth. Cutting and running was never a real option, and the public, often smarter than its leaders, knows that.


Palestine: Principals for peace

You can feel that something is cooking and I suspect that Olmert and Abbas will be able to produce an agreement on the principles for peace. Will there be actual peace? Not really. Olmert is weak, abbas is even weaker, Hamas is disruptive, and the detailed agreement will be much more complicated than the principles (not to mention the actual execution of such agreement). So now one can argue whether another document is what the Middle East needs right now.


Gaza: Military operations

The IDF will be forced to go back into the Gaza strip. One can?t imagine the continuous shelling of Israeli towns without more violent reaction from Israel. The operations will be limited in scope and time, and the military will not stay within the territory for more than a couple of days.


Settlements: Limited evacuation

Israel will evacuate a couple of illegal outposts in the West Bank, but not many.


International peace meeting: Sufficient success

This will not bring about a lasting peace in the region but will be sufficient so the parties can claim success. This means that the Saudis will eventually come.

Olmert: Survival

I will repeat my prediction from last year, but admit that this time it is easier: Prime Minister Olmert and his government will survive politically. I don't see any looming challenge from the opposition, and don't believe any of the criminal investigations will produce an outcome that will force him out. Not within a year.

Primaries: Jewish vote split

I'm not going to try and predict the outcome of the primaries, but I am ready to predict a split in the Jewish vote. Most Jewish Americans will be voting in the Democratic primaries, and my guess is that their votes will be divided between Clinton and Obama. The young, liberal (and according to the latest Cohen-Kelman study also more detached from Israel) will vote for Obama, the rest will vote for Clinton. As for the minority voting in the Republican primaries: Giuliani is the clear and only choice (Also the Israel Factor choice).


The Lobby: More criticism

The attacks on the pro Israel lobby will accelerate, mainly because of the looming battle over Iran policy. With all the tough talk on this issue, the Bush administration will be criticized from many quarters if it decides to escalate the measures taken against Iran. The Israel lobby will be blamed for war mongering - And you know what? If all other measures fail to achieve the goal of stopping Iran from becoming nuclear, the lobby will probably push for military intervention, making its critics wrong on the issue but right on sharing part of the blame. It will be ridiculous, though, to think that America will attack Iran just for Israel's sake. Other considerations involving American interests will be the key factor.


Judaism: A debate over officiating intermarriage

The trend toward acceptance of interfaith couples will make it more difficult for rabbis to refuse the request that they preside over ceremonies for such couples. My Weekly Guest, Gil Mann addressed this issue just yesterday: "In my mind "officiate" can be flexibly defined. I think rabbis should find ways to be a part of the ceremony with a judge doing the legalities. I'm not sure about co-officiating with a clergy of another religion ...that could be an especially difficult situation for a rabbi. I also can see a problem if the couple flat out says they plan to raise the children in a religion other than Judaism".


Rosh Hashanah on Rosner's Domain:

Updated The Israel Factor:
Ranking Fred Thompson's views on Iran and the Palestinians

What To Read:
Israel supporters unhappy about Obama/Brzezinski
Why The Arab left support the Muslim far-right?

Previous blogs:
The next year: Nuclear crunch time
Jewish renaissance? Rabbis are more skeptical

Rosner's Guest:
Gil Mann: Jews will need to reinvent themselves

Updated The Iran Time Saver:
Features, opinion, interviews, studies