Israel and Syria: Smoke on the horizon

The title given to the discussion by the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, "Smoke on the Horizon," was probably meant to attract attention. The debate had been scheduled for today, but was postponed at the last minute. In any case, the report on the progress of the war in Iraq that was presented here yesterday puts everything in the shade, pushes everything aside, overrides everything.

The witness who will appear before the committee, Assistant Secretary of Near Eastern Affairs C. David Welch, has just returned from a short visit to Israel, in preparation for the visit by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice next week. But the subject that will preoccupy him when the debate is actually held is not the same as the one that took up most of his time in Jerusalem - the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue - but rather "the coming crisis in Lebanon."

Even if asked by one of the legislators to provide information about the incident last week between Israel and Syria, Welch will apparently be unable to do so. Some of the professionals attached to the congressional committee were disappointed over the weekend by the vague replies they received from an official source. In any case, Syria will be central to the discussion about Lebanon only a day after it was also mentioned in connection with the testimony of General David H. Petraeus and U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan J. Crocker regarding the war in Iraq. And in both cases we are not talking about citations.

The U.S. administration has not been tempted so far to adopt the route of rapprochement with Syria, and for the time being it is difficult to see any sign indicating its intention to change direction. Syria continues to enrage senior diplomats, who are determined to help fortify free Lebanon, and who present a tough stance when discussing the Bashar regime. At the same time, the willingness of the Syrians to enable terrorists passage to Iraq, and their connections with dangerous countries such as Iran and North Korea, is making the Pentagon impatient, to the point of talk about being dragged into violent action. In such an equation, Israel can serve as an informant or as an executor. A secondary benefit lies in the rehabilitation of its image as a strategic asset that was slightly battered after it failed to meet expectations in the Second Lebanon War.

Without anyone to "feed the beast" - neither in Jerusalem nor in Washington - the American press refrained from providing an accurate report about the flight incident. But nosy curiosity seekers are always looking for a thread that will enable them to unravel the conspiracy of silence. Readers presuming to have information, whether real or imaginary, are sending descriptions to Web sites of attacks that did or did not take place deep inside Syria.

North Korea announced several days ago that in the context of its current negotiations about nuclear disarmament, the U.S. has agreed to remove it from the list of terror-supporting countries - a club whose other members include Syria and Iran, Sudan and Cuba. In Iraq, which was dropped from this exclusive list at the time when Saddam Hussein's regime was dismantled, the Americans admitted their mistake when they failed in their searches for vestiges of weapons of mass destruction. But in Israel, official sources estimate that the announcement was nothing more than a foolish attempt to amend a mistake with a mistake.

After the initial victory in Iraq, voices were heard here to bring down the Syrian regime as well, but the prolonged entanglement on the streets of Baghdad has limited American room for maneuver. The Syrians have taken good advantage of this for small, irritating stings, while skillfully avoiding a clear invitation to a confrontation: by infiltrating into Iraq, arming Hezbollah, undermining Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, and supporting Palestinian terror. And the less the U.S. desires a confrontation, the more frustrated it becomes. Now, once again, it seems that it is approaching a crossroads of decision: After all, the frustration of an American president in the face of arrogance is nothing compared to that of a president being faced by a regime that embodies a concrete danger.

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