From Arkansas to Jerusalem

DURHAM, New Hampshire - Abba Eban made his way to the Independence Day celebrations at Yankee Stadium in New York in an open limousine, accompanied by two rising stars - a politician and an actress.

"While both she and I have great assets," John Kennedy remarked as he turned to look at Marilyn Monroe, "hers are more visible."

Four years later, when Kennedy was elected president, his administration began developing, firstly with hesitation and later with greater momentum, "special ties" between the United States and Israel. No one could have guessed that this is the path that he would choose, not even the candidate himself.

In the same way, other presidents surprised Israel with their alienation (Ford) or their unexpected warmth (Bush, the son). The amount of interest they showed in the Middle East was dictated by the events of the hour. Jimmy Carter played an important role in the first Camp David summit, but only after Israel and Egypt showed the way. George Bush, the father, called the Madrid Conference as a stage in a process that began with Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait.

Two former governors of Arkansas - not among the most important, successful or most toured states in the U.S. - ran around among the pleasant cities of New Hampshire this week, looking for votes. Bill Clinton, who has already been president, accompanied his wife, Senator Hillary Clinton, who is vying for the presidential candidacy of the Democratic Party. Mike Huckabee, who would like to be the next Republican president, tried to win the support of voters, who in the meantime are showing him a certain amount of sympathy because of his wonderful sense of humor, but not a great deal more than that.

Huckabee has been declared the joker of this campaign because of certain lines that will gain him a place in the golden book of political humor. After he lost a great deal of weight, he reported how he admired his new physique in the mirror. "I said to my wife Janet, 'Look, I've lost 10 pounds' and she said: 'Turn around, you'll find it.'"

During the Republican candidates' debate a few weeks ago - a similar round will be held today in Durham - he caused waves of laughter when he said that Congress "spends money like John Edwards at a beauty shop," a missile aimed both at Capitol Hill and at the Democratic candidate who was dreadfully embarrassed when it transpired that he had paid $400 for his fancy hairdo at the beauty parlor.

An Israeli following the complicated maneuverings of the longest election campaign in the history of the U.S. searches for signs predicting the future policies of someone who has not yet been elected. All the candidates swear their allegiance to Israel, so that an obvious advantage is held by those who have already been there and proven that their heart is on the right side.

This is true of Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, who is not afraid of individually displaying his completely hawkish pro-Israel world view. Those who like it, can like it - those who do not, can vote for Clinton.

Her advantage, in the eyes of many of Israel's supporters, will obviously remain firm also in the wake of the new election speech she launched in New Hampshire, at the beginning of the week, whose aim was to present her as an agent of political "realism." This is the magic formula that served Republicans in the past, such as the father of the incumbent president - not among the most friendly of presidents in relation to Israel - which today is being heard from the mouths of Democrats as the clear signal that they are cutting themselves off from the heritage of the son's idealism.

Huckabee has already visited Israel nine times, eight times more than Bush. His Internet site has three chapters devoted to foreign policy: terror, Iraq and Israel; he promises that Israel "will have access to the state-of-the art weapons and technology that it needs to defend itself."

At all events, it is difficult to contradict what a fan of Huckabee's, but also of Israel's, pointed out - that four out of the last five U.S. presidents (Bush Jr., Clinton, Reagan, Carter) were elected to the post when they lacked any experience in carrying out foreign policy and dealing with international crises. They proved that even candidates like Huckabee and his ilk - less well known, more cautious about exactly defining their plans - can favorably surprise Israel.