Why you should never trust my predictions ever again (if you ever did)

Ten days before the New Jewish year, I guess it's time for some soul searching. It is also time to apologize for mistakes made, and admit to the many shortcomings one has. In short, it is time to take yet another look at my Daring predictions for a new year with some sense of humility.

Yes, I was right in some cases.

No, it is not surprising that I was wrong in many others.

My lame excuse: Saying that everything will be just about the same is boring. And as you might be able to detect, the safe choice is to say that things will be just about the same (which is, in the case of the Middle East, just as bad, or worse).

So here it is, my predictions vs. reality:

1.The U.S. and the EU will sit and talk with the leaders in Tehran.

The outcome: No real sanctions, no military strike, and at the end, a nuclear weapon, secretly developed, in the hands of the Ayatollahs - but this will not happen this year.

I can live with that: There were U.S. talks with Iran, though not about the nuclear program. The tough sanctions that were promised aren't in place yet. And as for the rest of it we will have to wait yet another year.

2.The U.S. will ask for some political concessions, and Israel will abide.

Pretty bad: It just didn't happen.

My lame excuse: The victory of Hamas made it almost impossible for the administration to ask Israel for any concessions.

2a. [Rice] will be the one most responsible for the change of tone and policy, thus playing the traditional role of the secretary of state.

Not as bad as it might seem: True, there was no major change, but to the extent that someone is trying to pursue an alternative policy (final status talks, international conference) it is she. Take another look at this NYT article dealing with the legacy of Rice: "Rice's goals in her remaining time as secretary of state appear to be focused on a face-to-face high-level meeting between Israeli officials and their Saudi counterparts, in what could eventually bring about the type of rapprochement not seen since President Jimmy Carter brokered the Camp David accord between Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin in 1978".
Quite ambitious, isn't it?

3. Hezbollah will be contained; the international force will help restore order.

That's pathetic: There's order, but it is misleading. Hezbollah was not contained. Could I be more wrong? (I actually could, if there's another war).

My lame excuse (and this one is really lame): I was hoping that following the Lebanon war the so-called "international community" would want to prove to all its detractors that it is not as useless as most people know it is.

4. A more practical rhetoric will be coming from Gaza.

It depends: You could say that such rhetoric was part of the political developments taking place in the first half of the year (Mecca agreement, remember?). But all in all I was dead wrong.

5. Syria: Probably more of the same: A lot of threats but no action to curb the regime's behavior.

Almost accurate: Short of some financial restrictions nothing much happened that can change Syria's attitude.

6. Olmert: By Rosh Hashanah next year we'll already have set a date for the next round of elections.

Wrong: I don't expect a date by next week.

My lame excuses:
A. No one believed he can survive for such a long time.
B. I actually got the first half of my prediction right: I guessed he will survive, for a while, and the main reason is that there is no attractive candidate out there to challenge him.

7. The new celebrity status of Walt and Mersheimer will give them more opportunities to spread their logic.
So? Did you read the book yet?

8. Republicans, moving away from Bush, will not be as friendly to hard-core Israeli views. The Democratic candidates for 2008 will talk nice about Israel, and plan for a more confrontational approach.

Too pessimistic: One can argue that some signs support my predictions, but all in all, I was overselling something that requires much more subtlety and nuance. And the most important thing I did not mention: More Americans have an opinion: They support Israel.

Lame excuse: Republicans voted against aid to Israel. Democrats weren't happy with the feud over Syria talks between Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Prime Minister Olmert.

9.Joe Lieberman might be winning after all.

The trend of giving more to Jewish education in America will keep gaining speed.

Finally, some good ones: Next week: another round of predictions.