Olmert and Abbas are talking. But who's listening?

The usual shortened version (850 words) of my weekend column (this time, after a short break, again with Aluf Benn in Tel Aviv) is here. For the full version (2000 words) click here.


Quiet talks
After a seven-year break in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the Israeli prime minister is once more in talks with the Palestinian Authority chairman over Jerusalem, the refugees and final-status borders. The ideas from Camp David are back on the agenda. But Israelis are not interested.

The media is almost totally ignoring the talks between Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, which used to rise when signs of peace were on the horizon, is also ignoring them. Even the political arena is tired out: The MKs are in recess and the right-wing opposition is finding it tough to spark a protest.
Politicians, advisers and Olmert associates talk about three factors contributing to this apathy: the fatigue and disappointment of the Israeli public after 15 years of relations with the Palestinians; a general assessment that Olmert, and certainly Abbas, won't be able to carry it out; and media behavior typical of August.

The Prime Minister's Bureau sees the quiet as boding well for Olmert. First of all, it weakens the argument that talks are nothing but spin, meant only to enlist the left and the media to save the prime minister politically. Second, it's easier to make progress when the coalition is calm. Olmert is taking pride in the positive atmosphere: "We sit here, in the work room. From time to time I smoke a cigar and he smokes a cigarette."

Some people, including cabinet members, are concerned that while sitting in the smoke-filled room, Olmert will be swept up into adopting positions that will cause strategic damage to Israel. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni announced her red lines this week: No Palestinian refugee can enter Israel, and a Palestinian state must not become a "terror state."

Olmert is acting cautiously and is not gambling, his associates say. In Olmert's view, the clock is ticking: The Bush administration is nearing the end of its second term, and Olmert has less than a year to function effectively. This recalls Ehud Barak's situation assessment before heading out to Camp David in 2000.

Expectations? train

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit the region again in mid-September - with a lot of expectations and few illusions, as one of her assistants said. There will certainly be some who take issue with the second element of that description. Rice realizes, or at least says she does, that there is no chance a peace agreement will be implemented shortly.

Rice has heard that Defense Minister Ehud Barak is skeptical about what can be achieved in the field. Rice says that if Barak is right and it really is difficult to do something in the field, then progress must be made where it can - that is, in outlining a future agreement.

The White House is not so thrilled with Rice's idea of the international conference, as could be discerned in Bush's speech announcing it. The goals of the meeting were carefully expressed: to help the Palestinians build institutions and to support the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. But the cautious speech is not a serious enough obstacle to halt the runaway train of expectations.

Opposition frustration

The negotiations caused the Likud to hope that it could revive the groggy right-wing opposition. On Tuesday, at the initiative of MK Gideon Sa'ar (Likud), the Knesset plenum will convene for a special recess session to discuss the political process. Likud chairman MK Benjamin Netanyahu, who led the protest against the Oslo Accords, will speak out against the prime minister.

The Likud's political goal is to flank Lieberman and get him to leave the government around the time of the Washington conference. The Prime Minister's Bureau is preparing a countermove meant to keep the Yisrael Beiteinu chairman stuck to his seat. He wanted to promote a civil agenda, and Olmert will now try to accede to his requests. That is the backdrop to Olmert's promise this week to bring Lieberman's suggestions on the form of government before the next Knesset session and to move forward on a visa exemption for tourists from Russia.

Promises, promises

The sincerity shown by Abbas and Olmert is one element the Americans are relying on, but there is another one above it: Rice's promise to Bush. Let me make progress with the Israelis and Palestinians, she told him, and I'll bring over the Arab world. Rice apparently truly believes in this, despite expressions of skepticism on the part of Israeli officials, who have told her they have difficulty finding any evidence of such a process.

Rice has learned the lessons of previous conferences. Bill Clinton, she thinks, made a mistake when he got to Camp David without first ensuring the Arab world's support. An earlier conference, in Madrid, also has something to teach: Its success lay in the very existence of the conference, but nothing substantial came of it. Bush Sr. and James Baker set the rule that the parties should be allowed to reach understandings themselves, rather than having an agreement formulated for them, and the incumbent president has no plans to change that rule.


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