Rice's influence apparent throughout Bush's address

"History will judge, but I know enough to know myself as a historian that today's headlines are rarely the same as history's judgment, and I think that's going to be the case here as well," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in an interview earlier this week.

Rice was referring to the policies of President George W. Bush, which she still believes will be seen as more successful in retrospect than they are seen now. But perhaps, on second thought, she was referring to herself and her increasing efforts to bring progress toward a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Rice, in contrast to some of her predecessors, has remained close to President Bush and has the president's ear. Her reward was evident Monday in Bush's speech. Does he believe in the chances of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to pull the Palestinian wagon out of the mud? It is enough for him that Rice believes it. And if not Abbas, then his prime minister, Salam Fayad. American policy-makers have been careful lately to mention Fayad's name almost every time they mention Abbas. He is the man whose shoulders are to bear the burden of the change.

Rice's imprint could be seen on almost every detail of Bush's speech. If she succeeds, he can take the credit. If she fails, he can say that he sent the best person to try. In any case, of the two main elements in his speech, one reflected the certainty of action and the other a more hazy hope.

Bush announced an increase in aid to Abbas' Palestinian Authority. That was the focus of his National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley when he announced Sunday that Bush would make the speech. That is the convenient, quantifiable portion of the speech. Anyone who argues will be given the numbers. In any case, this is a good time in the Congress, when even the American Israel Public Affairs Committee last week praised Abbas' energetic actions. The administration can assume that it will be able to increase aid without encountering legislative obstacles.

The second element, the convening of an international summit, was more ambiguous. Who will come? That will be a key question. A summit attended by Israel, Egypt, the Palestinians and Jordan is not such big news. But if Rice manages to drag the Saudis to the conference, she can report a breakthrough. But the Saudis have a tendency lately to disappoint the administration.

Rice ended her recent meetings with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, to whom the latter is much closer than to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Rice came out again and again with calls to the Arab countries to begin a process of normalization with Israel. This should occur at the same time, and not following - an Isaeli-Palestinian dialogue. So far, she has not succeeded.

A regional summit holds out hope and risk for Israel. The hope is that additional members will be added to the circle of peace, and Israel will receive augmented legitimization. The risk of is that Israel will find itself dealing with a coalition for whom its interests are not primary. The big question is, of course, what side of this coalition Rice will come down on? The White House will give her rope to act, but not enough with which to tie down the Israeli government. One thing has already been promised: Rice will sit, as Bush said, at the head of the table. That is, she, and not he.