The afternoon plans of Bush, Blair and Olmert

Time for my weekend column (It's the Benn & Rosner column, as usual). The full story is here. Below is a shortened version.

Afternoon

In a 40-year-old joke, the commanders of the Six-Day War, defense minister Moshe Dayan and chief of staff Yitzhak Rabin, meet one morning at military headquarters in Tel Aviv and discuss their plans for the day. "Shall we occupy some Arab country?" one of them, let's say Rabin, asks. "And what will we do in the afternoon?" wonders Dayan.

Occupying some Arab country no longer looks to Israelis like a subject for jokes, or like a morning outing, but rather like an endless nightmare. The problem that concerned Rabin and Dayan still bothers their successors today. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is approaching the moment when he will be asked, "What are you going to do this afternoon?" After surviving the Winograd report, after the Labor Party primaries and the presidential election, after the White House visit and the imminent appointment of a new finance minister and other changes to the cabinet as well, Olmert will once again face the question to which he has still not found an answer: "What is your agenda?"

Now Olmert must decide whether to spend his remaining time in office pleasantly, putting out fires and solving routine problems, or to don the trappings of leadership and make the transition from politician to statesman. His aides, of course, speak about the latter option (a politician, after all, will never admit he is just a politician), talking up renewed effort in the Palestinian direction, the first glimmers of which were seen this week at the Sharm el-Sheikh summit.

The political problem with the Palestinian track - beyond the low likelihood of success - is that its influence on Israeli public opinion is zero. "We agreed to meet at least once every two weeks," Olmert reminded Abbas at Sharm, but their meetings have been postponed several times. Even if they were to meet every two hours, however, the Israeli public has little enthusiasm for a photo-op between Olmert and the gray, weak Palestinian leader who lost Gaza to Hamas. It is difficult to take seriously Abbas' repeated promises to fight terror and impose order on the PA, especially when he is under Arab pressure, led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to renew the agreement with Hamas.

English

As soon as Tony Blair's impending resignation as British prime minister became known, American television programs filled up with tired jokes about President George Bush's "poodle," but a more successful joke (from Conan O'Brien) targeted another of Blair's virtues: "British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced that he will step down next month. After hearing this, President Bush said 'That's a shame. He's the only world leader who took the time to learn English.'"

In any case, Blair speaks Bush's language in more than one sense, and thus he can always count on having access to a precious American resource - the president's ear. Bush very much appreciates the fact that Blair stood beside him in the most difficult times and will try to help him in the difficult times that lie ahead for him in the Middle East. Now he will hear two of the people who are closest to him - Blair and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - explaining from morning to night why "the only way of bringing stability and peace to the Middle East is a two-state solution," as Blair said this week.

On Wednesday Bush removed his shoes to enter Washington's Islamic Center on the occasion of its 50th anniversary, bearing a message: the appointment of a permanent U.S. envoy to the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which brings together representatives from 50 Muslim countries. "We live in a time when [in the Muslim world] there are questions about America and her intentions," Bush said, and promised to do everything in his power to make it clear that these intentions are not malicious. Bush, like Olmert and Blair, is searching for an achievement that will result in his term in office being remembered in a positive light.

Jacket

The changeover at the Defense Ministry afforded Olmert an opportunity. "I don't want to decide for you which roadblocks to open," he told military leaders, and asked new Defense Minister Ehud Barak to form a team to draft a plan and present its recommendations. The message is clear: If there are any problems due to the opening of a roadblock, it is the defense minister who will be responsible. He, after all, is familiar with such matters. But because Barak also knows something about politics, he is in no hurry. According to a statement from his bureau, he has not set up a special team. "This will be dealt with via the usual working procedures," his aides said. In the past, those procedures have kept the checkpoints in place.

Even if the roadblocks are not opened, it is now clear that Olmert has at least realized, if belatedly, that the defense minister's main function is to serve as the prime minister's public flak jacket. Olmert will try to lead Barak into this role, but Barak has his own plans for taking over and will take pains to avoid the trap.