Big surprise: both Jewish and Arab Americans support peace

Note to the readers: Ori Nir of APN reacted to this piece. You can read his rebuttal here.

I like playing with polls. You might have noticed that by now. But the poll released to day by the Arab American Institute (AAI) and Americans for Peace Now (APN) presented me with a dilemma: what to do with a poll I find, well, of little value would be the most polite way to describe it. Should I write about it? Should I ignore it?


The survey, conducted by Zogby International is a joint survey of Arab Americans and Jewish Americans, measuring the support within both communities for Arab-Israeli peace. And guess what? They both want peace. Big surprise.


So what did I find problematic in this survey? That it's a feel-good-learn-nothing kind of poll. Do you want peace? Do you believe it's possible? Can we all be friends?


No further questions.


And here it is in reality: "Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that [Israelis/ Palestinians] have a right to live in a secure and independent state of their own?" the pollster asked. The conclusion: "Almost all Jewish Americans (98%) and Arab Americans (88%) believe that Israelis have a right to live in a secure and independent state of their own." The analysis presented by APN claims that "These numbers are largely unchanged from the 2002 and 2003 surveys", but are they really?


In 2002 and 2003, it was 95% of Arab Americans who agreed with this statement. The number declined to 88% in this poll, a detectable change that the analysis conveniently ignores. For Jewish Americans the change, very small, is upward, from 97% in 2002 to 98% today. Short of a better explanation, my conclusion will be different from the one presented on the APN website: Arab American support for Israel's right to be secured and independent is slowly declining. Maybe not what these institutions wanted to convey, nevertheless, this is what the numbers show.


And to the second question: "Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose a negotiated peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians that included the establishment of an independent, secure Palestinian state alongside an independent, secure Israeli state, and resolved final status issues of Jerusalem, refugees, and borders?"


Here, the problem is not with the numbers (87% of Jewish and 94% of Arab vowing support) but rather with the question. It's like asking: Do you support a cure for AIDS that will be cost free, available to all, will have no side effects and will also eliminate headaches and bad breath?


Well, do you? Of course you do. "What is striking about the results is the depth of the agreement", wrote Zogby in the Huffington Post. But the question is not whether people support finding a solution to Jerusalem, the refugee problem and the borders, but what kind of solution will they accept. The question asked in this poll is so general in nature, so unspecific, that it really has no meaning.


Which leads me to questions 3-4-5: Is peace important to the American strategic interest? Will you support a candidate promising to be more engaging on this issue? Do you think President Bush did a good job handling the peace process? On these three questions the replies can be seen as valuable only for those landing yesterday from a long journey to the moon. Those among us who weren?t lucky enough as to make this trip will not be terribly surprised to discover that Arab Americans and Jewish Americans reply to such question in the way one expects them to reply.


Jewish Americans are the most liberal of all American groups, and no, they do not approve of Bush handling anything, not the war, not the peace, not Katrina and not even his car keys. For Arab Americans the picture is more complicated, as the latest Pew survey of Muslim (not just Arab) Americans showed. Nevertheless, the answers they give to Zogby are terribly predictable (yes to importance, yes to engagement, no to Bush).


In the Pew survey it was much more interesting: "Can a way be found for Israel and Palestinian rights to coexist?" 30% of American Muslims of Arab origins replied with a resounding no, less then half (49%) said yes. While "Muslims in the U.S. express optimism that a balanced solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be found", the study concludes, "Muslims who came [to America] from Arab countries are significantly more skeptical about the Israel/Palestinian situation than are immigrants from elsewhere".


And you know what? It just proves that (on this issue) they are smarter.