What is it that binds America and Israel together?

Haaretz has already published a short news item about this new poll: "71% of Israelis want U.S. to strike Iran if talks fail" said the headline. 314 responders ("cowardly bigots" as my colleague Bradley Burston calls them) bothered to post their reactions.

Some of the other headlines in the poll: 91 percent said that close relations with the U.S. are vital to Israel's security; 52 percent of described American Jewish support of Israel as "sufficient"; 65 percent said they believe that the United States is a loyal ally of Israel. But as we all know, headlines alone don't always tell the whole story. The survey was commissioned by Bar-Ilan University's BESA Center and the Anti-Defamation League, so I asked the man in charge, Prof. Eytan Gilboa (who happens to be a member of my Israel Factor panel) for the full survey. Here are some more numbers and thoughts.

1.

A critical element was omitted from the news reports about this survey: it's not a survey of Israelis, but rather of Jewish Israelis. Why is that important? Because polls proved many times in the past that Arab-Israelis answer questions about the US quite differently from Jewish Israelis. "Almost 20% of Israel's citizens are Arabs, and their answers to the survey were quite different from those of Jewish Israelis", I wrote three years ago, analyzing a poll preceding the 2004 American elections. "the only section of the Israeli public that is not especially fond of the Americans, that does not love President Bush and, even more than that, wants Mr Kerry to be elected, is the Israeli Arabs", I wrote. Thus, when you read that 59% of Israelis still believe President Bush made the right decision by going into Iraq ? it?s the Jewish majority speaking. Arab-Israelis will beg to differ: in 2004 65% of Israeli Arabs believed that the US invasion was not justified and only 25% believed it was.

2.

Israelis (again, it's Israeli Jews) were asked what was it that's keeping the US and Israel the close allies they are. A couple of days ago, my Guest (of last week) Leon Botstein wrote about this same topic that "The "shared values" between America and Israel amount to more than rhetoric. They are about basic political premises including the obligation to see that justice and freedom are realized." I agree with him, but most Israelis tend to think that this is not the core element in this relations. Only 17% said the values will keep America and Israel together, while the vast majority look for much practical reasons (is it the tendency of Israelis to be more cynical than Americans?): 30% say it's politics - the American Jewish community and it's influence is the glue holding the relations. 48% of Israelis, almost half, believe it's the "critical role of Israel as a strategic ally" that will keep America friendly.

3.

49% of Israelis think that the U.S. Jewish community might disappear (intermarriage etc). 52% think that the American Jewish community doesn?t support Israel enough and 57% believe that American Jews are capable of voting for anti-Israeli political candidates. This should put in proportion the belief (30%) that the American Jewish community will make sure to keep U.S.-Israel relations tight in the future. "These results suggest that Israelis are concerned about American Jewish support for Israel over the long term," said Prof. Gilboa of the BESA Center. "They fear that U.S. Jewry does not place Israel high-up enough on its scale of priorities."

4.

A majority of Israelis (62%) are saying that American Jews should feel free to criticize Israel's government and its policies. I tend to be suspicious when I encounter such findings. Will this support remain at the same level when such invited criticism becomes more vocal?

5.

51% of Israelis believe that America will force Israel into an agreement with the Palestinians "in the near future". This might seem strange as these same Israelis believe President Bush to be "friendly" or even very friendly toward Israel (73%).

Strange - unless one assumes that most Israelis think it will actually be an act of graciousness on his part, if he decides to force Israel into an agreement.