Olmert is no longer a viable partner

It's time for my weekend column, the shortened version. This week it is shared again with my good friend Aluf Benn writing from Tel Aviv. You can read it in full here, or just these couple of paragraphs:

Jerusalem

Israeli sources heard the following assessment from the American administration: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will complete his term next spring, at the latest, and even if he begins a political process now, he won't have time to finish it. The public is against him - both on the left and the right - and anyway, he won't be able to take any significant steps. In other words, Olmert is a lame duck. Hence, it would be a shame to waste time and money speaking with him before he proves that he will survive the Labor Party primaries and the final Winograd Committee report on the Second Lebanon War.

The attitude toward Olmert's domestic problems is being seen in Jerusalem as an insult and as a reflection of the differences in approach within George W. Bush's administration. Just a week has passed since the president expressed his support for Olmert, only a few hours after the release of the Winograd report. Rice has reasons to be angry at Olmert, who hasn't really been enthusiastic about her diplomatic efforts in the region.

Rice's announcement about canceling her visit to Israel spurred talk among officials and the staff at ministerial bureaus in Jerusalem about a crisis and problems in Israeli relations with the Bush administration. But such speculations are dismissed in Washington, so much so that one person labeled it "paranoia."

Damascus

The Syrians didn't wait for the Winograd report to learn their lesson and try to adjust their armed forces in light of what they saw in the Second Lebanon War. From the Israeli side, the situation looks like this, according to intelligence experts: The Syrian army is busy raising the level of readiness, stepping up training and arming itself with up-to-date weapons, especially anti-tank missiles.

"They're arming themselves with all the weapons that Hezbollah successfully used against us," one of the sources said. The Syrians have also deployed more forces in the area of the buffer zone near the Israeli border, and have improved their positions. But according to the same sources, the Syrian preparations are defensive in nature.

In Israel, the need for taking steps strengthens the position of those who oppose the opening of a "Syrian channel" of negotiation. To talk to them now, one such opponent said, would be interpreted as showing weakness; it's better not to start talks that would erode Israeli deterrence even more than it has been eroded already.

What can the Syrians achieve with a military operation should they choose to cause trouble? Israeli strategists describe a so-called "Sadat strategy": taking control of a small area in the Golan Heights and obstinately holding on to it, as an impetus to jumpstart a political process that would lead to an Israeli withdrawal from the rest of the Golan.

Gaza

The IDF has been conducting a campaign during the last few months to encourage the country to embark on a major operation in Gaza, arguing that this is the only way to stop the bothersome Qassam fire and to prevent the Palestinians from arming themselves and gaining strength. Even those who propose limited steps initially, like GOC Southern Command Yoav Gallant, expect this to be only the beginning of broader action.

The cabinet will discuss the options on Sunday. The dilemmas are not simple, and deterred Israel from launching such activity even at the height of the intifada, during Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank. The Strip is very densely populated and filled with large quantities of weapons, and an invading force is expected to encounter serious opposition. In order to minimize the IDF's losses, the firepower needs to be intensified, which could in turn increase the number of Palestinian civilian casualties. If the government decides to send troops into Gaza, it's still not clear how they would exit Gaza, and who would take control of the keys and ensure quiet.

Therefore, some Israeli strategists are looking for creative ways to make sure an incursion doesn?t become necessary - for instance, by using technological means to combat the Qassam fire from the Strip. Such means could ostensibly identify and hit any rocket launcher in the area, along with anyone attempting to fire rockets. Those knowledgeable about the secrets of intelligence and technology say the capability for this already exists, and that all the components just need to be put together to complete the system.

Riyadh

The Saudis have disappointed the United States several times over in the past few months, including in the Mecca agreement on the formation of a Palestinian unity government and, worse still, public condemnations of the American military presence in Iraq. But the Saudi channel is alive and kicking. Those who already eulogized it, like those who eulogized Cheney and were excited by the erosion of his status, apparently spoke prematurely - and excessively.

Olmert, meanwhile, misses no opportunity to heap compliments on the Saudis and to try to get close to them. In the absence of evidence to the contrary, it doesn't seem that his efforts have been too successful so far. The Saudis disappointed with the Mecca agreement, and again when they decided to distance themselves from a dialogue with Israel about the Arab League peace initiative.