Bush, Rice, Olmert, Livni: the State of affairs

This is the shortened version of my weekend column. You can read it in full here.

Bush and Rice

The straw that broke the patient back of Ronald Reagan was the decision by his secretary of state, Alexander Haig, to skip the required procedures and to send instructions of his own to special envoy Philip Habib. This was during Israel's first Lebanon War, in the 1980s, and Haig did not have the patience to wait for approval of the orders he wanted from the National Security Council. What would you advise me to do, Reagan asked Haig in their meeting afterwards, if one of the army officers under my command were to ignore my instructions. "I'd fire him, Mr. President," replied Haig, tying the noose around his own neck.

In the June edition of Vanity Fair magazine, which has published selections from a new book ¬ the edited diaries of Reagan, which are now being published for the first time ¬ this episode is included as written by Reagan himself. Reagan wrote, with regard to Haig, "Actually the only disagreement was over whether I made policy or the secretary of state did."

The relations between the Israeli prime minister and the foreign minister differ ¬ both in content and in essence ¬ from those of their colleagues in Washington, George Bush and Condoleezza Rice. The American Secretary of state serves the president as long as the president wants him or her, the Israeli minister is an independent creature who can suggest to the prime minister that he resign from his job.

Olmert and Livni

The prime minister is the usual and natural choice in the Israeli government for dealing with the American file. The ambassador to Washington, Sallai Meridor, is Olmert's emissary; that was made absolutely clear this week when Meridor, only an hour after his minister declared that in her opinion Olmert should go home, said at a public event that he "personally" actually hopes that Olmert will survive the crisis.

Under these circumstances, and at a time when the prime minister is so weak, the Americans are concerned mainly about the vacuum that will exist until Olmert's fate is decided, either way. Livni has an excellent reputation in Rice's office and among her staff (at least that is the impression that they are trying to create)¬ but not necessarily in other government departments in the U.S. capital. Senior officials close to the leadership, who gossiped this week about events in Israel, did not conceal a hint of condensation when discussing Livni. Not that they like Olmert so much: They too, like many residents of Israel, waxed nostalgic this week, more than ever, about the days of Ariel Sharon.

Livni and Rice

Livni and Rice have shared a similar fate until now: popular ministers in a government that does not enjoy much public confidence. This is in part a consequence of the job: A foreign minister does not usually deal with matters that anger the public, nor is she required to make decisions on questions whose implications are necessarily evident to an untrained eye. In part it is also a matter of personality. Even those who are not fans of Livni's do not suspect her of personal corruption or attribute sleazy deceptiveness to her. Rice has also succeeded in evading most of the accusations leveled at her partners in formulating foreign policy. She is the moderate face of the administration.

Bush and Olmert

"Look how similar the situations of Bush and Olmert are," said an American who is very familiar both with the U.S. administration and the Israeli government: Both are unpopular, both are accused of running an unsuccessful war, both are seen as lame ducks who can no longer do anything. "And nevertheless," he said, "look how different their situations are, too. Everything depends on the form of government. Bush can be interrogated from today till tomorrow ¬ but it makes no difference how many mistakes he made, he can't be removed from his seat."
The American said one other interesting thing: He thinks that now of all times there is a chance that Bush will appreciate Olmert even more. "Bush likes people who are calm under pressure," and you can't take that away from Olmert, who refuses to surrender, refuses to go, for now. "Apparently he, like Bush, is not a person who easily resigns or gives in," was the American's impression.