What Winograd proved to right and left

War

The most boring of all political tendencies is the speed with which activists use every event as to promote their preconceived agenda. The Winograd report will not be any different. Here we go:

From the right: We need to make the military stronger, as the committee proved it was not ready for war. The committee also proved that the IDF was wrong in assuming that the era of big wars was over. It's not. And did you see what happened in Lebanon? We pulled out and let Hezbollah entrench itself for six long years. That's why the war was lost. We can't let this happen again in the Gaza strip.

From the left: The committee proved that the IDF was weakened because it was busy chasing Palestinians in the occupied territories instead of getting ready for real conflicts. We should end the occupation immediately as it hurts our ability to defend Israel. And we told you wars were bad. That's why we need to negotiate and to move the peace process forward ASAP.

Peace

So, is there a real chance for a comprehensive peace soon? Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs, David Welch, appeared yesterday before the delegates to the Anti-Defamation League's Washington convention. The "political situations on each side" (i.e. Palestine and Israel), he admitted, "make it harder to move forward" with the peace process, he said.

Photo

One photo can speak more than a thousand words. Prime Minister Olmert was caught on camera napping during a ceremony today. He has every excuse to be exhausted, and should not be condemned for not sleeping - but his gray face and tired eyes, as seen on TV, make him look like a leader who will not be able to stick it out for much longer.

Politics

Here's one thing on which Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is right: As soon as the Winograd report came out, the game became all about politics. You hear very little about substance and the discussion is almost entirely about the future of personalities.

Time

Theoretically, every day that passes without resignation plays into Olmert's hands. But this is not really true in the first couple of days. Today and tomorrow are the days for consultation and deliberation. The political system needs time to re-organize and adjust. Thursday will be the important day of the week as there are two events taking place that can determine the outcome of the crisis. The Knesset members of Olmert's Kadima party will convene and might ask him to resign, and a major protest rally is scheduled to take place in Tel Aviv.


Interim

Can you believe that Shimon Peres is a viable candidate to be prime minister again? Well, he is. If Olmert steps down someone will have to sit in his chair at least for a while. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is the most popular Kadima leader, but some of her colleagues will not vote for her, as they prefer someone on an interim basis in order to buy time to re-position themselves as candidates. Peres is the ultimate interim leader. He's already done it in the past, and will no doubt be ready to do it again (my latest take on Peres in Slate can be read here).

More on the crisis on Rosner's Domain: