The Winograd report: first reaction

Defeat

This is the concluding sentence of my Op-Ed from this morning. After reading the report, I see no reason to change it: "The Israeli public stands to learn from the Winograd report what the American public has learned following the Iraq War: Successful leaders require good judgment, moderation and farsightedness. In lieu of these, they must produce victories on the battlefield."

Conclusion

This one-liner is what most Israelis will remember from this report: "Severe failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and caution." As Hillel the Elder said, the rest is commentary.

System

I find this one-liner even more important: "part of the failures and deficiencies we found were not limited to the Lebanon war or to the decision makers we investigated." You want to prevent future failure? Change of leadership will not be sufficient; it's the system of decision making that's broken.

Olmert

Just yesterday, most political analysts predicted that the prime minister will be able to survive. The harsh language of this report changed that - now most predict he will have to go. Remember this: If things can change dramatically in 24 hours, they might well change again. Olmert, an experienced and able politician knows that. Resigning will end his career, sticking it out is the only option for him if he isn't yet ready to retire.

Politics

Olmert's survival kit has just one tool left in it: Israel's public is not at all sure that there's someone else they want as a replacement. Namely, Benjamin Netanyahu, leading the polls as the possible successor, is both the threat and the lifesaver.

Scapegoat

Former chief of staff Dan Halutz was forced to resign a couple of months ago and is now spending his days as a student in a lucrative program at Harvard University. Conveniently enough, he still has his uses as a scapegoat for the political leadership. The committee found him guilty of many faults, and since he was the only experienced professional in the triumvirate of shame (Olmert, Defense Minister Peretz, Halutz) the other two can say that he was the one who should have known better.

Leadership

"It's customary for countries to go through a crisis when the first generation is gone," I wrote for Slate last year (Where Have All the Leaders Gone?). If Olmert is not the one, and the memories from the days of Netanyahu and Ehud Barak are also grim - who else can be the leader? "It's not yet clear where the leaders will come from. The military, which was once a reliable source, lost steam and glory; professional politicians aren't popular in Israel; academics even less so; and businessmen tend to stay out of public life."

Investigation

I already expressed my skepticism yesterday: "That is the inherent problem with analyzing politicians' decisions in hindsight: The consequences of their actions are well known, whereas the possible ramifications of abstaining from those actions are pure guesswork."

Public opinion

The 2007 survey conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv was released last week: The Jewish public has mixed feelings regarding the results of the Second Lebanon War. 51 percent believe that neither side won the war. The other half are, more or less, evenly divided - 23 percent saying Israel won and 26 percent that Hizbollah won.

At the same time, confidence in the ability of the IDF to defend Israel remains extremely high - 83 percent of the Jewish population say that they can depend on the IDF to defend the country. On the other hand, faith in the political leadership is low, with only 34 percent saying that they can depend on the government to "make right decisions on questions of national security."

Peace process

Diplomacy will be on hold until the Israeli government is either replaced, or fully recovers from this crisis. Olmert's plan - using the peace process as to prove to Israelis that he should not be replaced - seems quite lame in light of the severity the Winograd report.

Context

News headlines will not leave much room for philosophical musings, but the quote the committee chose to use at the head of the report is worth repeating as it provides with the context for any possible public anger following the conclusions: "Weep ye not for the dead, neither bemoan him: but weep sore for him that goeth away: for he shall return no more, nor see his native country." (Jeremiah, 22, 10)