The Jewish Factor: Democrats better on Darfur, Church-State

For the first time in the Israel Factor surveys, we sought to examine an additional important element in regard to the candidates. We can call this the "Jewish factor" the ranking of the 2008 candidates according to a list of subjects that are of importance to the American Jewish community, other than Israel. The most interesting of them is the grade relating to the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, a crisis in which the Jewish community is a major force in trying to find a solution. In my print edition weekend column I expanded on the new survey and informed my readers on other issues related to the 2008 race. The following paragraphs are a part of it.

The Jewish community of America is a primary voice calling to end the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Its leaders are pushing for sanctions with all their might. They are pressing Congress to pass binding resolutions, the administration to be more aggressive, and economic firms to take independent measures. The panel was asked to rate the candidates based on the members' evaluation of their resolve to deal with this crisis, which is at the head of the Jewish agenda.

The response is particularly interesting in connection with Barack Obama, and explains why he has many Jewish supporters even before he expressed strong pro-Israel opinions. Among the candidates, the panel thought that he would deal most vigorously with the Darfur crisis and by a large margin over the other candidates. His score (4.25 out of a possible 5) is higher by half a point than that of any official candidate who follows. The only candidate close to Obama, with 4.13, is Gore, who has not announced that he will be running.

In regard to Darfur, the panel believes the Democratic candidates look more promising than their Republican opponents. This is equally true for another issue whose importance to the American Jewish community is not in doubt: the candidates' position on questions relating to separation of religion and state. Clinton and Gore lead in this regard (their positions are the closest to those of the majority of the Jewish community), but with them is one Republican candidate, Rudy Giuliani. All three have a grade of 4.13 out of a possible 5.

Giuliani's strength is also his weakness. He continues to lead as the panel's "best candidate" overall for Israel, and one can suspect that in this he is aided by his hawkish stance on foreign affairs and quite liberal posture on domestic issues. This makes it possible for panel members who look askance at classic Republican conservatism to give Giuliani a high rating, but these are also the positions on which he will be exposed to competition from candidates like Fred Thompson (Last week, the Israel Factor panel received a first package of background material on Thompson. He was not included in the seventh poll, but might very well appear in the next one), and which will make it difficult for him to gain the unreserved backing of the party's conservatives in the primaries).

With the exception of Giuliani, all the Democratic candidates get a higher score on "religion and state" than all the Republican candidates. No complicated calculation is needed by those who want to guess which candidate the Jewish voters will back in 2008: the Jews are the clearest group in opposition to the continuation of the war in Iraq, and probably the most concerned about the mixing of religion and state in America.

Among the Republicans, then, only Giuliani, who is well known to Jews from his tenure as mayor of the "Jewish" city of New York, might have a chance of drawing a large number of votes (relative to a Republican candidate), something George Bush was not able to do in 2004, despite prior expectations that were based on his record regarding Israel. Every other Republican candidate will have a hard time convincing America's Jews to vote for him.


The Israel Factor

Survey Results: Week ending 31/03/07

Analysis: The panel looks more favorably on Obama

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