Rice and Olmert: Disagreement is convenient

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has good reason not to fear disputes with Israel's prime minister: As long as they do not get out of hand, they faithfully serve as the goal of her visits to the region. Rice wants to prove to the Arab world that the U.S. is making a concerted effort to deal with the Palestinian problem. What could be more convincing to the Arabs that Rice is serious than a public disagreement with Ehud Olmert?

Rice's present visit seems like it was taken right out of a script from James Baker's tenure as secretary of state. Rice has come to try and push a plan not in keeping with Israel's policies. Before she arrived, she did not hesitate to publicly air the differences between the two nations, stemming from the American intention to maintain contact with the members of the Palestinian Authority unity government.

Rice was, therefore, welcomed politely but with indirect defiance. While she was going back and forth from Ramallah to Jerusalem, the cabinet allowed settlers to go to the settlement of Homesh in the northern West Bank, which was evacuated during the disengagement. A circle has been closed: Ariel Sharon welcomed Baker with a new settlement every time he came here.

In any case, the disagreement is good for all sides. It is a limited disagreement. Rice will bring it to the table when she talks with the leaders of the Arab and European Quartets who want to see a U.S. mediator who does not hesitate to pressure Israel. It will help Olmert stave off a political attack from the right and also - and perhaps more importantly - serve as a show of strength against the Rice-Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni duo. Baker learned that one does business with prime ministers - Shamir and afterward Yitzhak Rabin - and not with their foreign ministers (especially not Shimon Peres). Olmert wants to teach Rice a similar lesson and at the same time bring Livni down a few notches.

The Americans understand this political game very well. They have noticed that a few days before every visit by Livni to Washington, the prime minister's people come to the White House. In private talks between senior American and Israeli officials (Rice-Livni and Cheney-Netanyahu) and without the presence of aides who might leak the information, the Americans make sure to take the pulse of the Olmert government.

But this is entirely mutual. The Bush administration is also relatively weak. Senior Israeli officials have been dealing with a number of questions recently: To what extent is Bush behind Rice's activities? How much leeway is the U.S. willing to give? The answers can reveal the trend: Bush does support Rice, because he sees no disadvantages in the initiative. If she succeeds, he will reap the credit and if, as expected, she fails, he can distance himself relatively easily from the fallout. The American political cauldron, already bubbling ahead of the November 8 elections, will make it difficult for the administration to face off against Israel.