The Iran beauty contest

As I wrote in Slate three weeks ago, the Democratic presidential candidates attack the current administration for not doing more to engage the Iranians - but their proposals are very similar to Bush's. Today, I had a Slate piece dealing with the Republican candidates and Iran. The Republicans, I wrote, have an even less convincing M.O.: They attack the Democrats for attacking the president and end up suggesting, more or less, the same thing. Maybe this is the real story here: There's only one serious option when it comes to Iran and a lot of politicians spinning it. After all, the 2008 campaign has already begun - and we can hardly expect to hear political rivals say, "We agree." Even if they do.

For the leading candidates from both parties, the Iran question isn't a policy debate; it's a beauty contest. It's not about what the candidates say they want; it's about who you believe really means what they say. It's not about engagement versus the military option; it's about voters' - and the Iranians' - perception of the candidate's character. Do you believe Romney would dare do what Clinton would not? Do you think that Giuliani is more likely to go all the way than John Edwards?

We keep hearing John McCain's observation that "there is only one thing worse than a military solution, and that, my friends, is a nuclear-armed Iran." This is not so different from the 2004 Barack Obama quote that I ended my Feb. 27 piece with: "[U]s launching some missile strikes into Iran is not the optimal position for us to be in... On the other hand, having a radical Muslim theocracy in possession of nuclear weapons is worse."

McCain is the one that gets quoted, rather than Obama, because there's a public perception that McCain's threat is more sincere than Obama's. There's a commonly held assumption that Giuliani's threat is more credible than Edwards', because Rudy has a background as an uncompromising street fighter (albeit against crime in New York). Giuliani and the Republicans will use perception to their advantage: Even today, this tough-guy image makes the Republican Party more acceptable to voters when it comes to fighting terrorism.

So, yes, they all want sanctions, and they all believe that no option should be taken off the table - McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Clinton, Obama, and Edwards have all said as much. But you have to ask yourself how much you believe them. If the public keeps believing that the Republican candidates have more of the toughness that's needed to execute the policy, then the Republican strategy is working better.