More Americans have an opinion: they support Israel

1.

"A solid majority of Americans (58 percent) say their sympathies lie with the Israelis and only 20 percent say their sympathies are more with the Palestinians", according to a new Gallup poll. This is not very surprising as it has always been the case. That's the good news.

2.

The not-so-good news (but also not really bad): "This year's poll finds sympathies toward Israelis holding at last year's level, and sympathies toward Palestinians rebounding. The 20 percent favoring the Palestinians today is technically the highest level of sympathy for their side in the conflict recorded by Gallup since 1989, though it is not significantly greater than the 18 percent recorded in 2004 and 2005." Also: "The total percentage of Americans viewing Israel favorably fell slightly between last year and today - from 68 percent to 63 percent - while favorable views of Palestine increased slightly, from 11 percent to 16 percent."

3.

A year ago, Gallup recorded one of the most impressive margins in favor of the Israelis over the Palestinians. Only twice in the past 15 years has it been higher: During the first Iraq war in 1991 (Iraq was then launching Scud missiles into Israel) and shortly before the second war with Iraq, in 2003. The poll last year found 68 percent of Americans favorable toward Israel - 21 percent "very favorable."

Only 23 percent view Israel unfavorably, the lowest figure since the first Gulf War. At the time, those viewing Israel favorably were at 79 percent. The reasons for last year's surge were quite simple. The poll was conducted right after the collapse of Ariel Sharon and the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian election. But why is it different this year?

4.

Americans today are more polarized in their attitudes toward Israel, Gallup found. And they have an opinion: "Today, a combined 78 percent of Americans favor either the Israelis or Palestinians, while the remaining 22 percent express no partiality? The current 22 percent is down from 30 percent two years ago, and is only about half the level seen 14 years ago, when 43 percent of Americans had no preference in the dispute."

5.

There is good news in these numbers too. Americans are knowledgeable enough about the conflict, and still choose to favor Israel. "As Americans have moved out of the 'no preference' columns, they have moved disproportionately into the pro-Israeli column."

6.

The new poll doesn't include a breakdown of the numbers according to political preferences. But another Gallup poll, conducted in February, can give us more than a hint. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to favorably rate Israel - 73 percent vs. 58 percent.

"Republicans have consistently been more positive than Democrats in their overall opinion of Israel since 2001. The largest partisan difference over this period occurred in 2003, about a month prior to the start of the Iraq war. At that time, 78 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of Democrats rated Israel favorably. The latest poll finds only a 15-point partisan gap, with ratings among Republicans at 73 percent and among Democrats at 58 percent."