Factor notes: Why Clinton trumps Edwards

Edwards and Clinton

The Israel Factor panel ranks the two senior Democratic and Republican representatives from New York at the top of the list. Rudi Giuliani is the preferred candidate from among the Republicans, as is Hilary Clinton among the Democrats. This is no coincidence. The constant interest in, and the open sympathy for, Israeli affairs that is required of all important elected officials in the most Jewish of states in the U.S. has had its effect on them both.

We asked for a comparison along a number of parameters between Clinton and John Edwards, a former senator and the Democratic party's candidate for vice president under John Kerry, who lost In the 2004 elections. Over all, the panel concurred, the differences between them are not very great over questions of policy. Clinton is viewed as someone who will invest more effort in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but also as someone who would be less influenced by the positions of the European Union and the United Nations. The panel also gives more credence to the belief that her declared positions are her real positions, and that she will not change them for positions that do not favor Israel, the day after the elections.

But the analysis carried out by Prof. Camil Fuchs of the individual votes of the participants in the index leaves no room for doubt. The factor that has the most influence is the "emotional bond" with Israel, as the panel members understand it. Those who gave Clinton a higher rating with regard to an emotional connection, also rated her higher in the general index. This is the factor with regard to which there is no deviation, and there is a clear linkage between the rating of the individual and the general ranking. It is certainly no coincidence that Clinton, ¬ after long years as a senior member of the team of the friendly president Bill Clinton, and many years in the Senate as a friendly representative of the State of New York, ¬has built up such a solid record of maintaining an "emotional bond" with Israel, compared with that of Edwards.

In any case, anyone who was connected with the Clinton administration and also dealt with Israeli subjects is at the top of the Democratic list of the panel: Clinton, Gore and Richardson, who was Clinton's ambassador to the UN. The only exception to this rule is former general Wesley Clark, who is not certain to run, but who was an important military figure during the Clinton era, albeit not in the arena that has a direct connection with Israel.

Clark, as well as another potential candidate, Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, represent the circles that are the most critical in the current administration's policies,¬ those that tend to recommend adopting a policy in the spirit of the Baker-Hamilton committee and a
"realistic" approach to America's foreign policy.

Hagel spoke this week to the participants in a political conference organized by the Jewish Council for Public Affairs in Washington, and presented to the audience his recipe for what is needed: A dialogue with Iran and Syria, and a strong push forward on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Making the same speech earlier at the University of Nebraska, he placed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the top of the list of factors contributing to "lack of political stability in the Middle East." The panel ranked Hagel at the bottom of its list this time, too (although not the very bottom since Obama is lower than he is).

Note to the readers: This item is part of my weekend print edition long political piece. You will be able to read it all on Friday.

Obama

Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times offered a short piece on the Obama Israel speech (Friday in Chicago). She also offered this nugget to her readers: "Obama's camp is well-aware that the Israeli newspaper Haaretz -- in a recurring feature ranking the 2008 U.S. presidential candidates or people who may run on how good they are for Israel -- puts him last on its list. Former GOP New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani tops its ranking, followed by Newt Gingrich, John McCain, Clinton, Al Gore, Sam Brownback and the others, with Obama at the end. Part of the reason for the low score may be that the others have worked the Israeli street for years and Obama is just an unknown factor when it comes to Israel."

In the sixth Factor survey Obama is still behind. Next time, we will ask them to comment on the speech.