What else can Israel ask of President Bush?

It's time for the abbreviated version of my weekend print edition column (with Aluf Benn in Tel aviv). The full version is here.

Rice

A hackneyed joke about former secretary of state Colin Powell's mission to Ramallah and Jerusalem in 2002, which began with an attempt to achieve a cease-fire and ended in a loud squabble with Yasser Arafat, was revived this week in a corridor conversation between a visiting Israeli and a Washingtonian friend. "Powell's mission was somewhat successful. He came back alive," quoted the visitor. The context: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to the Middle East this week. She too came back alive, "If you can call that alive," commented the Israeli visitor.

Rice went to the Middle East with no expectations and returned with no achievements. The Mecca agreement has a golden share in this unsurprising failure. But a place of honor is also reserved for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. In recent months Olmert has been criticized from every direction and in every possible area. But one thing cannot be taken from him: There is no one more adept at power games and sparring with political rivals than he is. This week he demonstrated this again, in the moves that preceded the tripartite summit in Jerusalem. Rice did not manage to do much to stop him.

Olmert knows that there are those in President George W. Bush's camp who are also baffled by Rice's diplomatic activism. Statements that she made in interviews last week reminded some of them of former president Bill Clinton's delusional months leading up to Camp David. On Friday, when Rice was en route to the region, Olmert and Bush spoke on the phone. It is not clear who called whom, and what exactly was said, but Olmert announced after the conversation that Bush is in line with him about insisting on "the Quartet's conditions" for the Palestinian government: recognize Israel, renounce terror and honor previous Palestinian-Israeli agreements. Rice's aides quickly took note of the message. Their Israeli interlocutors had gotten the impression that they sounded more committed and determined than before to enforce the Quartet's conditions and to boycott the Palestinian unity government.

Bush

In recent weeks there has been lively discussion in Jerusalem surrounding the question of where these special relations are headed, and whether it is a good idea to ask Bush for a farewell gift. Some believe that since Bush is the best thing to ever happen to Israel, it is important to exploit the remainder of his term to upgrade relations.

But what should be upgraded, and how, is up for debate. Yoram Ben-Zeev, the deputy director for North America at the Foreign Ministry, has led a series of discussions on the creation of a new umbrella agreement that would combine all the memoranda of understanding between the United States and Israel, give them new validity and highlight the special nature of the relations.

Former Foreign Ministry director general Ron Prosor offered a different approach. Instead of formulating a large agreement, it would be better if Bush gave a quiet order to the bureaucracy in Washington to support Israel on a number of sensitive issues. Prosor's approach is that at a time when U.S. opposition to military involvement in the Middle East is surging, Israel can show some consideration. Instead of asking for defense treaties, it should simply say: "Give us the tools and we'll do the work."

There are three Israeli upgrade requests in the pipeline, one of which concerns civilian cooperation in the nuclear file - now limited because of Israel's refusal to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The exemption India received from these restrictions has encouraged the Israel Atomic Energy Commission to try to obtain similar easements, even if they are limited. Other requests concerned access to advanced military technology for quality intelligence - a hint at a possible conflict with Iran.

Senior officials in the defense establishment believe that Israel should strive for the achievement of an increase in American military aid. The current agreement that defines American aid to Israel will expire next year, and with it the civilian economic aid will end as well. Israel wants another $50 million annually in the coming decade to be added to the sum it receives for military aid - which currently stands at $2.4 billion a year. The government has accepted this position and has decided that the increase in aid should be the main focus, that it would be better to put the other upgrade requests on a back burner for now.