We've agreed to talk, but that's all

My weekend column, with Aluf Benn in Tel Aviv, dealt mostly with the Palestinian arena (but was written before the agreement on a Palestinian unity government was revealed). Read it all here, or the shortened version down here:

Risk

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the American administration want "a diplomatic horizon," but they haven't quite explained to us what this means, according to an Israeli official. We've agreed in the meantime to a three-way summit (between Rice, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, on February 19), but not on a course or a process. We'll talk about the final-status accord, but there won't be any implementation until the first stage of the road map is carried out (which calls for the Palestinians to dismantle the terror organizations and for Israel to dismantle the illegal outposts).

The Israeli official was quite skeptical of Rice and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's proposal to present a "diplomatic horizon" that would strengthen Abbas and the Palestinian moderates. If the idea is to clarify to Abu Mazen what the terms of a final-status accord might be, so that he can go and present it to his people, that would be risky, said the official. Abbas is not going to obtain the right of return and the 1967 borders, and the discussion of Jerusalem will be postponed until a later date. If Abu Mazen brings this to his public, Hamas can claim he sold out the Palestinians and, rather than strengthen Abbas, this would only hasten his fall.

Drop

The official said Israel would prefer direct talks with the Palestinians, but if there must be a mediator, an American would be best. Olmert's staff is afraid of wrecking the channel the prime minister's diplomatic duo Yoram Turbovich and Shalom Turjeman are pursuing with Abbas' aides. Translation: They don't want to see Livni and her associates in the room.

This is apparently why the pair's preparatory talks with U.S. emissaries, ahead of Rice's visit at the end of next week, were held in London and not Jerusalem. It may be cold in Europe, but at least there's no one around to compete for America's attention, and thus the U.S. emissaries could be kept away from Livni and other Israeli politicians. In her most recent visit to Israel, last month, Rice heard four different diplomatic plans from her Israeli hosts. This time Olmert will try to avoid that sort of embarrassment. He's decided Rice will meet with an Israeli team to include him, Livni, Amir Peretz and Shimon Peres. When he wishes to discuss serious matters with his guest, he'll take her aside for a one-on-one.

Time

Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee member Effi Eitam (NRP-National Union) visited the American capital this week, and met with a number of different people on Capitol Hill. He believes he is being listened to more seriously now, due to the expectation that the Israeli right will soon be returning to center stage. Kadima has no future, Eitam told his listeners at the Heritage Foundation, and the political system will again organize itself into two blocs: Likud-Labor, Bibi-Barak.

He asked his American interlocutors to consider the following: Look at Gaza, and then look at the West Bank. There, in Gaza, where the occupation ended, there is only chaos, gunfire, bloodshed and war. But in the West Bank, it is relatively quiet. Not that Eitam is happy about the withdrawal from Gaza, but, he told the Americans, a lesson can be drawn from it. The occupation may not sound very nice, but it turns out that "for the Palestinians, it's preferable to what's happening now in Gaza." Eitam suggested that the best scheme to follow is this: In the coming years, the goal should be to preserve the status quo. No initiatives, no withdrawals, no promises, no deals. "Until when?" a dubious Congressman asked him. "Until there's someone to give the key to," Eitam replied. And he thinks this will take a very, very long time.