Why did The Israel Factor panelists downgrade Rice?

January 19, 2007
My weekend column for the print edition deals with some of the numbers of fifth survey of The Israel Factor. I've already dealt with the numbers relating to the Clinton-McCain race in the first analysis of this survey, but the print edition article contains more information and an analysis of the full survey. If you want to read the entire article, click here. Or you can read an excerpt here:

Preferability

Last week a Jewish professional who is involved in the politics of the Democratic Party recalled a story about a meeting in Jerusalem between the party's former national chairman, Terry McAuliffe, and former prime minister Ariel Sharon. It was during the days of the intifada, and Sharon, the host, did not conceal his opinion from McAuliffe. "The Democratic Party has always supported us," said the prime minister, referring to a trend dating back to the days of the state's establishment and its immediate recognition by president Harry Truman. However, continued Sharon, I have to be fair with you. President George W. Bush the Republican is more supportive of Israel than any other president has been.

McAuliffe has just written a new book, "What a Party!" in which, among other things, he relates how Yasser Arafat caressed his leg during the course of an official dinner. But the book's main interest stems from McAuliffe's criticism of the party's presidential candidate in 2004, Senator John Kerry, in his failed campaign against Bush.

McAuliffe is one of the people closest to Bill and Hillary Clinton, and was among the most politically influential people during the period of the former as president. When Sharon praised Bush to him, therefore, he was not without a comeback. There is one politician, he said to Sharon, who is more popular in Israel than either Bush or you, and his name is Bill Clinton. According to the story, Sharon replied: "Don't you meddle in Israeli politics."

This is a tale worth recalling with the publication of the fifth index of "The Israeli Factor," a ranking of the potential candidates for the U.S. presidency according to their attitude toward Israel and the problems facing it. One of the interesting and surprising findings in it: The panel of ranking experts prefers Senator Hillary Clinton (New York) to Republican Senator John McCain (Arizona) for president.

Connectivity

We wanted to find out why the panel consistently gives former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani a higher grade than it does McCain. We asked the team 11 questions relating to the two candidates and we asked them to give a grade of 1 to 5 on every item. For example: "To what extent do you think the candidate will pressure Israel to leave the Golan Heights in return for an agreement with Syria?" In answer to this question, McCain received the grade of 2.86 and Giuliani 1.86.

There are two outstanding elements in this comparison. The one is that the panel, with almost no exceptions, assumes that McCain will apply more pressure on Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights. It was the same when we asked whether the candidate would demand of Israel that it evacuate outposts, even if it receives nothing in return from the Palestinian side (McCain 2.63, Giuliani 1.38).

The second, more outstanding and important element as it is also expressed in the general voting by the panel: Giuliani is perceived as having a stronger emotional connection to Israel, 4.13, than McCain, 2.75.

Perhaps, in fact, this is also the reason the panel prefers Clinton to McCain, at least in the head-to-head race. When we asked the question about the "emotional connection" with respect to all of the candidates on the first index a few months ago, the panel ranked Clinton, with 7, above McCain, who received the grade of 6.88.

Popularity

What explains the fact that Condoleezza Rice's grade has also been dropping consistently (this month, for the first time, it has gone up, but only by a little) and especially why her ranking as compared to other candidates is going down? From ninth place, Rice's position dropped to 12th, 15th and 16th. This month she has climbed back to 14th place, because the number of candidates has also gone down. Again, we presented the panel with a series of questions that could explain the drop in their estimation and we asked them to reply with a number from 1 to 5 (1 shows that the issue had no influence and 5 shows that it had a great deal of influence on the change in the grade).

Various panelists gave different answers about what's bothering them, so there is no alternative but to assume that Rice is just a miserable victim of circumstances. The panelists who are worried by the possibility of American pressure on the Palestinian issue lowered her grade because they believe that some of her statements show she is over-committed to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Others, who really have no diplomatic problem with Rice or with a certain amount of American pressure, lowered her grade because their estimation of President Bush is very low and her loyalty to his policy causes them to doubt her intelligence.