Under what circumstances will the U.S. attack Iran?

The new Israeli ambassador to the United States, Salai Meridor, chose to open his maiden speech in the U.S. with a well-known quip: It was Harry Truman who said that if you want a friend in Washington, get a dog.

Not so for him, said Meridor: Since he arrived three weeks ago, he has found many friends. And these are the friends on whom Israel may have to rely as it formulates the next stages of its policy for stopping the Iranian nuclear program. Meridor left no doubt as to his assessment of the threat, which he called the worst since World War II.

At around the same time, the incoming U.S. secretary of defense, Robert Gates, was attending his Senate confirmation hearing and was presenting an assessment that was no less chilling. Gates can't promise that the Iranians won't attack Israel with nuclear weapons; in other words, he sees it as a distinct possibility, even if not a likely one.

Gates was extremely cautious in expressing his opinion, so as not to contradict what U.S. President George W. Bush had already said about Iran. Gates didn't rule out a military operation in Iran, but it was hard not to notice the coldness with which he spoke about the possibility. He listed the problems that the U.S. would face if it were to attack, and described the circumstances necessary for such action: If we feel that our critical interests are being threatened. The question of how such interests will be defined, and what role Israel might play in those interests, remained open.

In a discussion on Iran between Gates and U.S. Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, Byrd was no innocent and curious interrogator, but was intending to transmit a specific message.

The Baker-Hamilton committee on resolving the Iraq problem will release its findings today, and public figures are getting ready for it. Iraq is the No. 1 issue on the American agenda. In any case, what Byrd wanted to know was whether an attack on Iran or Syria would lead to an increase in the number of American casualties in Iraq? Yes, said Gates. In both cases? Yes, sir, it's very possible, the candidate responded.

With the release of the Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq, there will also be polls showing that America has had enough of the Middle East conflict, and that the public supports withdrawal and dialogue with Iran and Syria.

In such an atmosphere, it is difficult to see how the administration could win support for yet another conflict. Administration officials who continue to threaten that in the absence of United Nations Security Council action, they will need to take other step are increasingly sounding like the man who threatens that if he doesn't get his dinner, he will have to do what his father did - and go to sleep hungry.