Hezbollah know that you know that they are winning

I have a new article in Slate dealing with recent developments in Lebanon. You can read it in full here, or just read these couple of paragraphs:

Supporters of Hezbollah, the terror organization that is the most powerful military presence inside Lebanon, feel that they are winning, that they are on the march. The majority of the country also feels that they are winning. Hezbollah knows that everybody else knows that they feel that they are winning. And they have the determination and the necessary patience - and support from Iran and Syria. What does Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora have to offer? The support of the United States. Majorities of both the Sunni and the Shiite components of Lebanese society define their views of the United States as "very unfavorable." Both Sunnis and Shiites say they have "no confidence" in the United States. Both Sunnis and Shiites believe that democracy "is not a real U.S. objective" in the region.

But it is the Shiites who have the most interesting answers in this poll - though they aren't always the same answers as the rest of the population (that is, Sunnis, Christians, and Druze). Shiites are the only group that believes that "[i]f the US quickly withdrew its forces" from Iraq, "Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences." (Shiites are the majority in Iraq.) Shiites are the only group that insists that "[e]ven if the Israelis return all of the territories occupied in 1967 peacefully, the Arabs should continue to fight Israel no matter what the outcome" and the only group who perceive Israel as "[w]eaker than it looks/matter of time before defeated." They are the only group whose views of Hezbollah have changed for the better since the summer war with Israel and the only group that considers Israel to be the big loser of the war - rather than the "Lebanese people" as the other groups believe.

In short, they are the only group that feels strengthened, confident, and on the march. These are the most dangerous feelings you can have in a region like the Middle East. If you're humbled and realistic, you go for compromise. If you're cocky and emboldened, you try to grab it all. Why not have the Americans pull out of Iraq if you think that your people will take over control of the country? Why stop fighting Israel if you believe you're ultimately going to win?

As they look around, they don't see any other force that might stop them. The United States is determined, but it is exhausting itself in Iraq; Israel has tried and failed; and the other, more moderate, Arab countries will not pick a fight with Iran and Syria over this marginal cause. Some Lebanese are waiting, somewhat anxiously, for the Baker-Hamilton committee's recommendations this Wednesday. They have zero confidence in the help they might get in the future from an American administration. "If the Syrians help Bush in Iraq, he could sell us out in a second," one of them told me. "Exactly as his father sold out the Kurds to Saddam 15 years ago."