Back-from-vacation notes: PA, Iran, Syria, GOP

Just a couple of updates after my 10 days off.

PA

"With Gilad Shalit's release and his return safe and sound to his family, the Israeli government will be willing to release many Palestinian prisoners, even those who have been sentenced to lengthy terms," said Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

You might think Olmert is right to suggest this, and you might think he is wrong.

Those who say he is right will focus on the peace process or what's left of it. The release of prisoners was always a big issue for the Palestinians, and was always considered as a step of "confidence building."

Those who think Olmert is wrong will say this move is not about the peace process but rather about the war on terror. The decision to release prisoners might be necessary and valid - but linking the release to the abduction of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit will only encourage the militant groups to try again.

Iran/Syria

The NYT main headline this morning comes as no surprise to anyone: A draft report on strategies for Iraq, which will be debated here by a bipartisan commission beginning Monday, urges an aggressive regional diplomatic initiative that includes direct talks with Iran and Syria but sets no timetables for a military withdrawal, according to officials who have seen all or parts of the document.

Is this a sign that change is imminent? Yes and no. The pressure is growing but some counter-pressure is also building quietly.

Yesterday in the Post, Jim Hoagland reminded the readers that talking to Syria might come with a price the US will not be willing to pay: The killing of Gemayel, a member of the anti-Syrian coalition headed by Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, bears the hallmarks of a Syrian "initiative" to block the U.N. effort. And the murder came as Syria was reestablishing diplomatic relations with Iraq after 24 years of estrangement. This translation of Syrian actions quickly made its way through the Middle East: "You want help in Iraq? It will cost you Lebanon. For starters." That is realpolitik and real communication, Assad-style. That is in any event the context in which any new U.S. move to talk to Syria and to Syria's ally, Iran, will be seen. Washington must avoid giving the impression that it is willing to allow Syria to regain hegemony over Lebanon in return for smoothing the U.S. path in Iraq.

GOP

While I wasn't here, some people kept working, and Jennifer Siegel of the Forward is obviously one of them. Last week, she revealed that the Republican Jewish Coalition survey of the midterm voters was a hoax, no less.

I feel the need to update you here about this as I also wrote about this poll right after I came back from my election tour. "The RJC poll is not without merit," I wrote, "but also has its flaws." This should be rewritten: It has its flaws, and no merit.

Why? The answer comes from the Forward: The telephone survey? bypassed Jews who never attend synagogue or do not associate with a major movement? As it turns out, the RJC's conception of the "Jewish vote" doesn't include those who are not allied with a synagogue movement.