More election notes, Jewish votes and other thoughts

1.

The numbers debate keeps going: How many Jews voted for whom? We have the exit polls. Methodologically problematic and with a smaller sample than necessary (it's here, I wrote about it yesterday). According to those polls, 87 percent of Jews voted for Democrats while 12 percent voted for Republicans. However, we also have a poll conducted by the Jewish Republican Coalition claiming that "the Jewish vote for Republicans held steady compared to reported results from 1992 to 2004. At the same time, in a difficult political environment, the national vote for Republicans declined significantly, resulting in the loss of control of the House and possibly the Senate."

2.

The RJC poll is not without merit but also has its flaws. It was conducted among 1000 Jewish voters, but all of them were found in two states and one district (NJ, FL, PA 6). Its main findings: 26.4% of Jews voted Republican. Younger Jewish voters supported Republican candidates in even greater numbers. Among those under age 55, 30.7% voted Republican, compared to 23.8% of those age 55 and over. It also found that Jewish men are more inclined to vote Republican (30.6%) than women (22.6%). And that among those who attend synagogue almost every day, 35.2% voted Republican, those who attend once a week, 31.8% voted Republican, and only 23.1% of "occasional attendees" voted Republican. Reform Jews voted 23.0% Republican, Conservative 25.2% Republican, and Orthodox 42% Republican.

3.

So, we have a problem: did 12% of Jews vote Republican or 26.4%? The simple answer is: Trust the RJC poll as it comes to the areas in which it was conducted and trust the exit polls on the general picture, knowing that it is not accurate and that the margin of error is much higher than usual.

4.

One can also conclude that this numbers debate is somewhat silly and adopt the attitude expressed by my weekly guest, rabbi David Saperstein. "Both polls," he wrote, "affirm what polls routinely find: the American Jewish community is overwhelmingly democratic and far more liberal than other Americans. Whether it is three quarters of the community voting Democrat (as the RJC poll indicates) or 87 percent (as the national exit polls found), no group other than African Americans comes even close to the democratic vote of the Jewish community."

5.

The RJC polls also found that "among those who saw the RJC ads in local Jewish newspapers, support for Republicans rose to 35.4%, a nine percent increase over the average of 26.4% support for the GOP found in the RJC polls." RJC ads were stirring debate in the Jewish community as they were blaming the Democrats for not being strong enough on Israel. Talking to some Jewish leaders and many voters in the last couple of days I get the feeling that this controversial debate is not at all over.

6.

The debate might even get fiercer as we enter the process of electing the House and Senate committee chairmen. Some of the candidates for different posts will serve as efficient ammunition in the hands of republicans as to argue that democrats nominate candidates famous for being "weak" on Israel. John Conyers is one of these legislators, John Dingel is another one. The Democrats will say (they are already saying this, that these congressman will not be dealing with issues related to Israel. However, the mere visibility of them in the House's leadership might serve to refute Democratic claims for being as strong on Israel as Republicans.

7.

One legislator that the Democrats will be able to use to refute these allegations is Tom Lantos. If he gets to be chairman of the committee on International Relations he will be considered one of the staunchest supporters of Israel to ever hold such position. The problem is, of course, that Lantos might be considered too centrist (or right wing) in the eyes of his Democratic colleagues. So he might end up losing the committee and serving as yet another tool in the hands of Republicans on their way to prove their point about the Democrats and Israel.

8.

The number that will not be debated is the number of Jews in Congress: 13 in the Senate, 30 in the House.

9.

And more interesting numbers are coming from a poll by The Israel Project: 54 percent of American (not just Jewish Americans) voters consider themselves supporters of Israel, while 6 percent consider themselves supporters of the Palestinians. 21% said neither. 85 percent of voters support the international community placing economic and diplomatic sanctions against Iran and the same number support a ban on all international weapons sales to Iran. But how many will support a military action against Iran? The poll, at least publicly, doesn't include this question. And the Project also didn't release the breakout of the numbers (Democrats vs. Republicans).

10.

Steve Hunegs, executive director-designate of the Jewish Community Relations Council (JCRC) of Minnesota, issued the following statement regarding the election of Keith Ellison to represent Minnesota's fifth Congressional District in the House. As first published here, Ellison, the first Muslim in congress, promised that he will travel to Israel soon: "JCRC also will work with Representative-elect Ellison on the enduring issue for the Jewish community: peace in the Middle East. We respect Representative-elect Ellison's commitment to a two-state solution and hope to work with him on initiatives that ensure the safety and security of Israel and promote the establishment of a democratic Palestinian state free from terror. Representative-elect Ellison's indication that he wishes to visit Israel with the JCRC in the coming months is a positive first step, and we look forward to accompanying him on this trip."

11.

And one more reminder for those of you who were too busy with the election as to take a look in our third Israel Factor survey: Giuliani is first again - and there's an interesting question about Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.