Election notes: Happy Dems, happy Jews

1.

The Jews voted for the Democratic candidates. We all know that. But we need numbers to prove that it is so, and that's why we turn to the exit polls. But hey, wait a minute, the exit polls don't have a large enough group of Jews to make it scientific.

Well, scientific shmientific ? we need numbers and we are going to use numbers. So here it is: 87 percent of Jews voted for Democrats. Or not. But we know it was a majority of Jews. Definitely a majority. I asked all my (Jewish) neighbors and they all voted for Cardin. But maybe this is only because he is Jewish too? No, they also voted for O'Malley for governor. He is such a good looking guy...

2.

You want the numbers anyway? Here it is: 87 percent of Jews voted for Democrats, 12 percent for Republicans. You can read all the data here. Note that the sample is 2 percent of the poll. That's exactly 264.16 Jews sampled.

3.

But who cares about the voters when you have so many new Jewish legislators in Congress. The 13 in the new Senate - not counting George Allen who's still undecided, on both his election and his Jewishness ? is a new record. Cardin of MD and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are the new additions to the group.

4.

Many new Jewish legislators in the House too, some of them from areas in which there aren't many Jewish voters. If you haven't read my election tour pieces yet, you can go back and take another look at John Yarmuth from Louisville, Kentucky. He won the race yesterday, and will be one of about 25 Jewish members of the House. "See you in Washington Congressman Yarmuth."


5.

The Republican Jewish Coalition tried to sway the Jewish vote toward the Republican Party, using Israel as a tool. The RJC claimed that Democrats are weaker on Israel and voting for them will not be good for the country. Obviously, the RJC has failed in this attempt to convince the voters ? but this doesn't mean that its message should be totally ignored. This last Friday I wrote that the RJC argued "An intriguing, but potentially risky claim... Israel has always relied on support from both sides of the aisle, and would clearly be better off continuing to do so."

But I also wrote that "Jewish activists from the Democratic side... have reason to be angry, but they also have work to do. At the basis of the Republican claim lies a niggling kernel of truth that is reflected in all the public opinion surveys. Democratic voters do not side with Israel at the same rate and with the same enthusiasm as Republican voters do."

I see no reason to change my mind after the Democratic election victory.


6.

It's true, though, that watching Rahm Emanuel and Nancy Pelosi speaking for Democrats all over the country yesterday evening was somewhat reassuring. If this is the Party's leadership, no Jewish voter (or an Israeli for that matter) should fear the new Democratic majority. I know that officials who were following the elections in Israel didn't feel any need to get nervous about the outcome.

7.

When I wrote about Joe Lieberman's loss in the Democratic primaries, I got an email from a Jewish supporter of Ned Lamont saying that he doesn't give a dam about Lieberman "the Jewish political icon." It's time to move on from this, he wrote to me, "and send the icon to the right place for icons - the museum."

I thought he was wrong ? but this is something one can hardly prove. Either you feel obligated ? or you don't. Yesterday, one thing was proven: he was wrong politically, as were many others, among them senior political pundits and analysts, who told me two months ago that Lieberman was doomed.

8.

A new Congress, a new day, and the eyes are on the visit, next week, by the Israeli prime minister to the White House.

"The meeting between Olmert and Bush," I wrote today, "is a meeting of leaders who are conducting holding operations in the face of continuous attacks. The surveys show that neither is popular at home, and voices from the rest of the world indicate that they are not particularly admired abroad. The problems are piling up, and there are no new solutions."

9.

Keith Ellison, a candidate for Minnesota's Fifth District congressional seat, best known as the probable "first Muslim in Congress" beat his (Jewish) opponent yesterday. Last month, I said that he was going to travel to Israel after winning election: "Of course, there's some fear among the Jews of Minnesota that Ellison is playing with them just to get their support before the election. However, one of them told me, such trip is a good test case. If Ellison decides not to go with it after winning the race, they'll know that he tricked them (yes, he admitted, it will be to late for them to do something about it - but election come every two years). And anyway - I talked to several people and most of them thought that Ellison is sincere." Now we will see if they were right.

10.

We completed a new Israel Factor yesterday, knowing that it might be a problematic day for it, but wanting to keep our schedule uninterrupted. There are some new interesting numbers, and the analysis of one of the questions which you can read here: Bottom line: the panel concluded that the next president will probably not be as friendly as Clinton/Bush. A sobering thought that should be taken into account in Jerusalem.