Both U.S. parties agree: Democrats will win House but not Senate

Both major American political parties expect the Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives in tomorrow's midterm elections.

A National Journal survey demonstrated this aptly. It showed the Republicans predicting that the Democrats would win 21 seats in the House, seven more than they would need to win a majority, while the Democrats predicted that they would get 23 seats.

Both parties also have similar expectations for the Senate, according to the poll. The Republicans predicted a Democratic gain of four seats and the Democrats predicted five seats. In both cases, the result would be the same: The Republicans would continue to control the Senate, but by a majority of only one or two seats.

If there is a surprise in the midterm elections, it will be in the Senate, should the Democrats do a little better than expected and win an extra seat or two. They need six seats altogether to take control of the Senate.

The gap between the number of seats that each party ends up with will be the center of attention in the next two days, since the smaller that gap, the greater the temptation will be - in both parties - to demand a recount. Such election chaos, of the kind that still reverberates from the Florida tally in the 2000 presidential race, is the big concern that overshadows Election Day.

There are many tight races, and each has the potential for the loser to appeal the results. Close Senate races are taking place in Missouri, Virginia and Montana, and in the House of Representatives, there are many tight races: two in Pennsylvania, two in Ohio, two in Indiana, two in Kentucky, one in Illinois, two in Florida - and the list goes on.

In Connecticut, three races are so close it is still tough to tell which way they will go. Some experts have said that Connecticut will demonstrate the extent of the Republican crisis: If all three races go to the Democrats, it will be a sign that the tide is turning, but if only one does, then the Democratic victory will be a relatively modest one.

In the most interesting race in Connecticut, the polls predict a certain victory for Senator Joe Lieberman, who decided to run as an independent after Ned Lamont beat him in the Democratic primary.

The number of Jews in the Senate will apparently rise, assuming that Lieberman stays and Ben Cardin wins in Maryland. The number of Jews in the House will definitely increase, due to expected new members from Florida, Arizona, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and other states.

Some legislators who are considered highly unsupportive of Israel are expected to be voted out. These include two Republicans, Congressman John Hostettler from Indiana and Senator Lincoln Chafee from Rhode Island. On the Democratic side of the aisle, Israel supporters breathed a sigh of relief when Cynthia McKinney of Georgia lost the primary, thereby preventing her from winning another term.

President George W. Bush, who has been campaigning hard recently, has the lowest approval rating ever for a president heading into midterm elections. Former president Harry Truman, who held the record until now, entered the 1950 midterms with a 40.5 percent approval rating, and lost 29 seats in the House and six in the Senate. Bush's approval rating is 37 percent, states a recent Gallup poll.