Pittsburgh notes: Politics, polls, provocations

Politics

It's the week of an election tour, through Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio and maybe Kentucky. So far, what I can say is this:

First: Most of those I ask will vote for the Democrats. I'm not saying this should be considered as reliable data, or as big news, but it is the impression of the unbiased bystander. I'd put my money (if I had any) on a more-than-symbolic Democratic victory.

Second: Traveling through the parts of Pennsylvania that are usually dismissed as the rural "between" ("Pennsylvania is liberal Philadelphia in the East, liberal Pittsburgh in the West and Alabama in between"), I happened to read the new poll on rural America and the fight for Congress: "Over the last month, voters in rural areas moved toward the Democrats in key contested congressional and Republican seats across the country. This movement reflects several dynamics, ranging from Iraq, to perceptions of an uneven economic recovery, to the difficulty Republicans are having energizing the 'values voter' in the post-Foley environment." I found it very interesting.

Third: The level of negativity and smear in many of the campaigns is really, truly, disgusting. You all know that by now, don't you?

Polls

Camil Fuchs, Haaretz's pollster, is teaching at Pittsburgh University this semester, and I went to visit him yesterday as he was crunching the numbers for a poll we will publish at the end of the week, dealing with Israel and the midterm elections.

We had a somewhat similar survey back in 2004, just before the election, in which we checked the public's attitudes toward America and the American president (you can read my analysis and the rest of the project on The Guardian web site). Here's what I wrote then - it will be interesting to see, in a couple of days, if any of this has changed:

Israel loves the U.S. president because he holds the umbrella that protects it from its enemies. He symbolizes the defense and economic support, and - above all - the moral support that Israel receives from the U.S. It is he who gives Israel the feeling that it still has one friend left in the world who can be trusted, even in times of great trouble. He is the symbol, and America is the friend...

There is nothing surprising, therefore, about the results of the survey conducted for Haaretz by the Dialogue Institute, under the supervision of Professor Fuchs. Chances are that if such a survey were to be conducted in two years to measure the Israeli public's affection for John Kerry, should he be elected president, its results would be similar.

They would change to the detriment of the president only if he demonstratively, and over time, adopted a stance that was opposed to that of the Israeli public, especially if it had to do with their view on the war with the Palestinians...

If we study the survey, a clear picture emerges - the only section of the Israeli public that is not especially fond of the Americans, that does not love President Bush and, even more than that, wants Mr. Kerry to be elected, is the Israeli Arabs.

Almost 20 percent of Israel's citizens are Arabs, and their answers to the survey were quite different from those of Jewish Israelis. Among Jews, affection for the U.S. is even higher than the overall result of the survey demonstrate.

Around 50 percent of the Arab population wants Mr. Kerry to win, as compared to 24 percent of the general public (including Arabs). In fact, most of those who said they wanted Mr. Kerry to win rather than Mr. Bush were Arabs (along with a few Jewish leftists). The position of Israeli Arabs is thus far closer to the position of the Arab world than it is to the position of Israel's Jewish citizens.

A similar picture has emerged over the war in Iraq. The only reason there is not wall to wall support for it among Israel's citizens (the level is around 80 percent) is the fact that around 65 percent of Israeli Arabs believe that the U.S. invasion was not justified and only 25 percent believe it was. Again, this could be described more as an Arab position, and less of an Israeli one.

Guest

I'm writing mostly about politics this week, but my guest doesn't. He is writing about other interesting things, and I believe that some of what he has to say might be of interest to many of you. For example: "Because I believe that the Jewish future will take place in Israel, and not here in America, I tend to think that those people who are truly, deeply committed to this future are the ones who pick themselves up and make aliyah. I don't mean to cast aspersions on the two or three million Jews in America who involve themselves in the affairs of our community -- these are good, sincere, concerned people -- but theirs is ultimately a vicarious experience."

The dialog with Jeffrey Goldberg is . And you can send questions to rosnersdomain@haaretz.co.il.

Errors

Two errors need clarifying - both related to the piece on Cardin and the Jewish legislators.

One is my error. Writing in haste I called Nancy Pelosi the Majority leader. This was, of course, premature.

The second one was only visible to readers of the print edition version of the piece, but since some of them complained - or just sent me notes condemning my stupidity - I should probably clarify this too. In the original piece (the one you can see here) I wrote that "there are 25 Jewish Representatives, almost all are Democrats." However, it was written in Hebrew, and translated in haste. So much so that the word "almost" was left out, making it a mistake (and making me look ignorant, which I might be but not on this issue). I thank those of you who bothered to correct me politely.