The end of the third term

President George W. Bush's third term enters the final stretch in two weeks. His terms as president can actually be divided into four parts: from Inauguration Day on January 20, 2001 to September 11, 2001; from September 2001 to Election Day, November 2, 2004; from his victory over John Kerry that day to November 7, 2006; and from the impending November 2006 defeat until the end of his term in January 2008. He is soon to enter the fourth and final part - two years that will be unlike any others.

There is a "possible parallel" between the war in Iraq and the Vietnam War, the president admitted last week. The late-night talk shows in the U.S. were quick to take the bait, with Jay Leno suggesting that: "The big difference is, his dad could get him out of Vietnam."

But the recovery attempts are continuing in Iraq, and if Bush's father cannot save the day, then his father's secretary of state, James Baker, who is close to submitting an action plan, can. Nevertheless, Baker will not be able to save Bush from the political disaster caused by Iraq, just as he failed to save George H.W. Bush from political defeat despite Bush Sr.'s military victory in Iraq.

It's hard to predict the force of the wave threatening to wash over the Republican Party, but at the moment, it seems likely to be a big one - the kind that will be remembered for years to come. Perhaps it will be comparable to the 1994 tsunami that swept the Republicans into the majority in Congress for over a decade, or the post-Watergate wave of 1974 that gave the Democrats close to 50 new seats in the House of Representatives.

It will also be the end, as we mentioned, of Bush's third "term," which will be followed by changes on nearly every front: domestic and foreign policy, political leadership, party coalitions, centers of power and influence, timetables. The clock is ticking down toward 2008 and the hour of decision for potential candidates who have yet to throw their hats into the ring. Bush will be left on his own.

He will be cut off from the party leadership, which will be scrambling to reorganize in anticipation of the next battle and to repair the damage to its image caused by Bush. On the other hand, Bush will also be released from the bonds of the party, and while it is busy with politics, he will attend to posterity. He will find refuge in projects aimed at carving out his place in history. Bush can get quite a lot done in his fourth term, but selecting a path of action will not be easy.

America is sick of the war in Iraq, and is looking for an exit; the evangelistic right has been beaten, its influence will be weaker than in the past several years. The Republican Party will shift the course of its policy: more like Baker, less like Bush. Both houses of Congress, with a relatively small majority of one party, will find it hard to function. In any event, a few of the most important senators will be busy with the presidential campaign.

Bush will find refuge in foreign policy, but Iraq appears to be lost. Regarding Iran, the talk is of prevention rather than success, and North Korea will probably be left for the Chinese to handle. And so, Bush will look for other areas in which he can make his mark: Lebanon and Palestine are likely candidates. Difficult cases, but ones that seem worthy of further examination. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice indicated her personal commitment to the Palestinian issue in a speech she gave two weeks ago in a manner that closely recalled Bill Clinton's personal commitment to the issue during his last year in office.

Bush will not find it easy to succeed in these arenas either, however. The facts on the ground are deceptive, and his rivals in Congress also will make trouble for him. Some Israeli observers believe that the Democrats may actually run a right-wing, and run around Bush regarding issues affecting Israel. The Democratic leadership will try to prove that it is not too soft to rule: some will be as tough as Bush, if not tougher, when it comes to Iran. They will criticize insufficient implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 on Lebanon, and they could very well block Bush on the question of Palestine if he or Rice start looking for achievements that could be interpreted as coming at Israel's expense.