What will Iran learn from North Korea?

Once more, this past weekend, one fact was proven beyond all doubt: It is very difficult to convince a country to relinquish its plans - even if it is small, poor, isolated, backward - so long as it is sufficiently determined. The Bush administration has failed in its attempts to block the third part of the "axis of evil," as it has already failed with the second part, Iran. With regard to Iraq, the jury is still out.

North Korea's action should come as no surprise to anyone. That is the way of the world. What was not tried in efforts to block the North Koreans? Bill Clinton signed a deal with them and agreed to give them aid, George Bush attacked them verbally and isolated them diplomatically, and then began regional talks that went nowhere. North Korea's neighbors - South Korea, China and Japan - also failed to deliver the goods. On the eve of the first Gulf War, the Arab leaders promised the U.S. president, Bush Sr.,that Saddam Hussein would not attack Kuwait. Bush, in spite of intelligence suggesting otherwise, believed them. So did Richard Cheney, who was defense minister, and since has become a lot more skeptical.

Hussein surprised and attacked. The Koreans also surprised, but long ago, when it turned out that they had developed a nuclear capability and that they had no intention of honoring the agreements they had signed with the Clinton administration. All that the world could do was sit back and watch the strange leader of North Korea with amazement and condemn his actions.

In any case, in the coming weeks the nuclear test will serve as the battleground for a pseudohistoric debate, political in its essence, over whose fault this is: Clinton or Bush. Two weeks ago the focus of the debate was Osama bin Laden and the failure to kill him. Now it will center on the way the two administrations dealt with Kim Jong-Il. The result, just as in the case of Bin Laden, will not be flattering for either of them.

Last Wednesday, the U.S. assistant secretary of State for East Asian affairs addressed the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test with uncompromising statements. Tough words but of dubious importance. How exactly do the Americans intend to not come to terms with a Korean bomb? The same way they did not accept an Indian bomb? Or a Pakistani one?

Nonetheless, there may be a tightening of the grip on North Korea. Not because besieging it will necessarily result in North Korea's disarming but as a way of preventing the smuggling of equipment and knowhow from North Korea to Iran and other countries. There were those yesterday who stressed the positive aspects of the nuclear test. It will boost the hardliners in their efforts to demand action and further isolate North Korea. It is also serves as a preamble to what is expected in a few years in the case of Iran, and what will happen if no action is taken in time.

On the other side of this lesson stands another one: that whoever is determined to acquire nuclear weapons, will do so. So long as those who violate treaties have sufficient deterrent power to dissuade any efforts to strike against them, they will not be stopped. At this stage, Iran meets these conditions.

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