The Israel Factor's second round: Gore diving, McCain rising

The Israel Factor's second survey is online, and the first analysis I wrote for it is dedicated to the hot button issue of the Midterm elections. However, some other points are worthy of attention as we start. I will write more about the breakdown of the numbers in the coming weeks.

So here are some notes on the ranking of the candidates and the panel:

McCain: He is now strong second after trailing in the first survey after Gingrich (and tied with Clinton). Why is that? Very simple: Everybody likes McCain as a candidate, but some panelists, those who tend to be suspicious of the far right, don't feel as comfortable with Gingrich. A unanimous vote is always stronger than a polarized one (at least in a panel vote, life is more tricky).

Clinton: She is now fourth instead of 3-4 last time. It appears problematic as Republicans now occupy the first three places, but I don't think one should make too much out of it. The panel in general didn't change their minds about her, nor about Giuliani, McCain or Gingrich. There are some panel members (those more inclined to rank Democrats highly) who ranked her first.

Gore: Al Gore did take a dive, from fifth to ninth. The panel started looking at the broader field and some of its members figured he was no longer the centrist Gore we knew in the past. Not that they didn't know it a month ago, but some dynamics take time to materialize. The panel is not unanimous about him, but generally in agreement - he ranked too high in the first survey.

Allen: This is a mystery for me. Apparently, some panel members were influenced by the news about his Jewish roots, and his numbers surged, which I think is a bit premature, and maybe even a serious mistake (he could now be in a position where he'd want to prove that he doesn't favor Israel). However, one of them had a calming explanation in regard to Allen's surge (I asked them all about it after getting the results), which I tend to think is the right one: It is not because his mother was Jewish that we think he is better, but rather because of the news we became more curious about him and took a closer look at his record. The record, not the roots, is the real reason.

Warner: Again, it's the record. The panel took a closer look at some of the statements and interviews in which he spoke about Israel and came to the conclusion that he deserves to be in a better position.

Dodd and Feingold: What happened to Gore also happened to these two. The difference is the history of Gore and his general likeability for Israelis. The answers on Feingold were more polarized, though, than the marks Dodd was given.

Obama: The panel was not convinced to give him more credit. Why? Well, there was no reason to do such a thing as he didn't make any statements or revealed any new positions.

Panel: Don't miss my dialog with Alon Pinkas, one of the eight panel members. Pinkas eloquently explains the nature of this experimental project. And you can send him questions too by clicking rosnersdomain@haaretz.co.il.

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